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Does a cool head beat a hot hand? Evidence from professional golf

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  • Evans, Andrew E.
  • Crosby, Paul

Abstract

This study draws upon psychological models of momentum to test for the existence of characteristics such as the hot hand and whether such characteristics predict better or worse overall performance. Using data from professional golf tournaments, we show that the negative emotions associated with poor performance (such as a loss of confidence) have a greater influence in the short run on scoring than positive emotions associated with prior success. We find that male and female golfers respond similarly to prior hole performance, while better players may be more prone to dips in performance after recent failures than other players. Overall, our results provide empirical support for the notion that performance training should incorporate psychological skills, including strategies for controlling emotional responses to success and failure in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Andrew E. & Crosby, Paul, 2021. "Does a cool head beat a hot hand? Evidence from professional golf," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 272-284.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:97:y:2021:i:c:p:272-284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.01.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brett Green & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2018. "The Hot-Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Major League Baseball," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5315-5348, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Andrew E. & Crosby, Paul & Shin, Sunny Y., 2023. "Psychological momentum among non-experts: Evidence from club golfers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Confidence; Performance; Golf; Hot hand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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