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Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball

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  • Sina Mews

    (Bielefeld University)

  • Marius Ötting

    (Bielefeld University)

Abstract

We investigate the hot hand phenomenon using data on 110,513 free throws taken in the National Basketball Association. As free throws occur at unevenly spaced time points within a game, we consider a state-space model formulated in continuous time to investigate serial dependence in players’ success probabilities. In particular, the underlying state process can be interpreted as a player’s (latent) varying form and is modelled using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our results support the existence of the hot hand, but the magnitude of the estimated effect is rather small as the underlying success probabilities are elevated by only a few percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Sina Mews & Marius Ötting, 2023. "Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 313-326, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:107:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10182-021-00410-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-021-00410-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Marius Ötting & Roland Langrock & Christian Deutscher & Vianey Leos‐Barajas, 2020. "The hot hand in professional darts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 565-580, February.
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    7. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," OSF Preprints sv9x2, Center for Open Science.
    8. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2018. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2019-2047, November.
    9. Clifford M. Hurvich & Jeffrey S. Simonoff & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1998. "Smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression using an improved Akaike information criterion," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-293.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michels, Rouven & Ötting, Marius & Langrock, Roland, 2023. "Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1118-1127.

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