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An Insight into Overconfidence in the Forecasting Abilities of Financial Advisors

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  • Gerhard van de Venter

    (School of Finance and Economics, Faculty of Business, University of Technology, Sydney, Broadway, NSW 2007.)

  • David Michayluk

    (School of Finance and Economics, Faculty of Business, University of Technology, Sydney, Broadway, NSW 2007.)

Abstract

Financial market participants exercise judgment in decision making and psychological studies have shown that individuals are overconfident about their ability to evaluate financial securities. Range estimation calibration studies indicate that individuals tend to estimate narrow intervals in their estimation of unknown future quantities, suggesting overconfidence. Financial planners have an inherent duty of care and this may lead these individuals to behave differently in their estimation methodology and behaviour. From a survey of Australian financial planners, we find extensive overconfidence in respondents' ability to make judgements under uncertainty as shown by a narrow range of forecasts and a substantial number of inaccurate predictions. The overconfidence is present both when comparing estimates to the ex-post outcome of a predicted quantity and to an interval based on historical return volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard van de Venter & David Michayluk, 2008. "An Insight into Overconfidence in the Forecasting Abilities of Financial Advisors," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(3), pages 545-557, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:32:y:2008:i:3:p:545-557
    DOI: 10.1177/031289620803200309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Athota, Vidya S. & Pereira, Vijay & Hasan, Zahid & Vaz, Daicy & Laker, Benjamin & Reppas, Dimitrios, 2023. "Overcoming financial planners’ cognitive biases through digitalization: A qualitative study," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Meyer, Kevin, 2016. "Immobilienbeschaffung durch lebenszyklusübergreifende Wertschöpfungspartnerschaften: Empirische Analyse der Chancen und Risiken betrieblicher Immobiliennutzer," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81267, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    8. Rafał Wolski & Monika Bolek & Jerzy Gajdka & Janusz Brzeszczyński & Ali M. Kutan, 2023. "Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 757-794, February.
    9. Kris Hardies & Diane Breesch & Joël Branson, 2011. "Male and female auditors' overconfidence," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 105-118, November.
    10. Zamri Ahmad & Haslindar Ibrahim & Jasman Tuyon, 2017. "Institutional investor behavioral biases: syntheses of theory and evidence," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(5), pages 578-603, May.
    11. Marina Fiedler, 2011. "Experience and Confidence in an Internet‐Based Asset Market Experiment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 30-52, July.
    12. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    13. Oberlechner, Thomas & Osler, Carol, 2012. "Survival of Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 91-113, February.
    14. Marina Fiedler, 2011. "Symposium: Experience and Confidence in an Internet-Based Asset Market Experiment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 30-52, July.
    15. Olubunmi Edward Ogunlusi & Olalekan Obademi, 2021. "The Impact of Behavioural Finance on Investment Decision-making: A Study of Selected Investment Banks in Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1345-1361, December.
    16. Marina Fiedler, 2011. "Symposium: Experience and Confidence in an Internet-Based Asset Market Experiment," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 30-52, July.
    17. Rabbani, Abed G. & Grable, John E., 2022. "Can portfolio risk be described with estimates of financial risk tolerance calibration?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    18. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
    19. Thomas Oberlechner & Carol Osler, 2009. "Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Working Papers 02, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    20. Gignac, Gilles E. & Zajenkowski, Marcin, 2020. "The Dunning-Kruger effect is (mostly) a statistical artefact: Valid approaches to testing the hypothesis with individual differences data," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    21. Amandha Ganegoda & John Evans, 2014. "A framework to manage the measurable, immeasurable and the unidentifiable financial risk," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 5-34, February.
    22. Yogita Singh & Mohd. Adil & S. M. Imamul Haque, 2023. "Personality traits and behaviour biases: the moderating role of risk-tolerance," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3549-3573, August.
    23. Kris Hardies & Diane Breesch & Joël Branson, 2012. "Male and female auditors' overconfidence," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(1), pages 105-118, January.
    24. Zamri Ahmad & Haslindar Ibrahim & Jasman Tuyon, 2018. "Governance of Behavioural Biases in Asset Management Industry: Insights from Fund Managers in Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 65-102.
    25. Fawad Ahmad, 2020. "Personality traits as predictor of cognitive biases: moderating role of risk-attitude," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 465-484, June.

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