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Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets

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  • Michailova, Julija
  • Schmidt, Ulrich

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between market overconfidence and occurrence of stock-price bubbles. Sixty participants traded stocks in ten experimental asset markets. Markets were constructed on the basis of subjects' overconfidence, measured in pre-experimental sessions. The most overconfident subjects form 'overconfident markets', and the least overconfident subjects 'rational markets'. Prices in rational markets tend to track the fundamental asset value more accurately than prices in overconfident markets and are significantly lower and less volatile. Additionally we observe significantly higher bubble measures and trading volume on overconfident markets. Altogether, our data provide evidence that overconfidence has strong effects on prices and trading behavior in experimental asset markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Michailova, Julija & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2011. "Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets," Kiel Working Papers 1729, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1729
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Giovanni Ferri & Matteo Ploner & Matteo Rizzolli, 2016. "Count To Ten Before Trading: Evidence On The Role Of Deliberation In Experimental Financial Markets," CERBE Working Papers wpC07, CERBE Center for Relationship Banking and Economics.
    4. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders’ confidence in their price forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 121-136.
    5. Cueva, Carlos & Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Iñigo & Ponti, Giovanni & Tomás, Josefa, 2019. "Boys will still be boys: Gender differences in trading activity are not due to differences in (over)confidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 100-120.
    6. Kocher, Martin G. & Lucks, Konstantin E. & Schindler, David, 2016. "Unleashing Animal Spirits - Self-Control and Overpricing in Experimental Asset Markets," Discussion Papers in Economics 27572, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Dickinson, David L. & Chaudhuri, Ananish & Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2017. "Trading While Sleepy? Circadian Mismatch and Excess Volatility in a Global Experimental Asset Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10984, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
    10. Farjam, Mike & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2018. "Bubbles in hybrid markets: How expectations about algorithmic trading affect human trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 248-269.
    11. Kazuto Sasai & Yukio-Pegio Gunji & Tetsuo Kinoshita, 2017. "Intermittent Behavior Induced By Asynchronous Interactions In A Continuous Double Auction Model," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02n03), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Baiba Renerte & Jan Hausfeld & Torsten Twardawski, 2020. "Gender, overconfidence, and optimal group composition for investment decisions," TWI Research Paper Series 121, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    13. Vanessa Martins Valcanover & Igor Bernardi Sonza & Wesley Vieira da Silva, 2020. "Behavioral Finance Experiments: A Recent Systematic Literature Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    14. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Correlation Neglect and Overconfidence. An Experimental Study," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-5.
    15. Amos Nadler & Peiran Jiao & Cameron J. Johnson & Veronika Alexander & Paul J. Zak, 2019. "The Bull of Wall Street: Experimental Analysis of Testosterone and Asset Trading," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4032-4051, September.
    16. Marco Cipriani & Roberta De Filippis & Antonio Guarino & Ryan Kendall, 2020. "Trading by Professional Traders: An Experiment," Staff Reports 939, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Soleman Alsabban & Omar Alarfaj, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Behavioral Finance in the Saudi Stock Market: Evidence of Overconfidence Behavior," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 73-86.
    18. Martin G Kocher & Konstantin E Lucks & David Schindler, 2019. "Unleashing Animal Spirits: Self-Control and Overpricing in Experimental Asset Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2149-2178.
    19. David L. Dickinson & Ananish Chaudhuri & Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, 2020. "Trading while sleepy? Circadian mismatch and mispricing in a global experimental asset market," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 526-553, June.
    20. Langnickel, Ferdinand & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2016. "Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 121-133.
    21. repec:grz:wpsses:2013-04 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; price bubbles; experimental asset market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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