IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/amerec/v39y1995i2p78-86.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Real Interest Differential Hypothesis, How Did it Fare in the 1980's?

Author

Listed:
  • Jarrett Bruhn

Abstract

The Real Interest Differential hypothesis, an exchange rate modelling breakthrough developed by Jeffrey Frankel (1979), was very successful at predicting variations of the exchange rate between 1974 and 1978 but failed when tested for its predictive ability between 1974 and 1988. Using a monetary model and long term bond expectations model as bases of comparison, it appears that Frankel's success was a product of a period when the genre of asset approach models were successful at predicting exchange rate fluctuations. The three asset approach models all succeed at predicting exchange rate variations in the late 1970's and all deteriorate and fail in the mid to late 1980's.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarrett Bruhn, 1995. "The Real Interest Differential Hypothesis, How Did it Fare in the 1980's?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 39(2), pages 78-86, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:39:y:1995:i:2:p:78-86
    DOI: 10.1177/056943459503900211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/056943459503900211
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/056943459503900211?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boughton, James M., 1987. "Tests of the performance of reduced-form exchange rate models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 41-56, August.
    2. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1988. "International Economic Cooperation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld88-4.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    5. Martin S. Feldstein, 1988. "Introduction to International Economic Cooperation," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Cooperation, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:255-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:bla:ecorec:v:62:y:1986:i:177:p:215-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lindsay I. Hogan, 1986. "A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(2), pages 215-223, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.
    3. Renato Filosa, 2003. "Shock monetari e reali, ciclo economico e valore dell' euro," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(223), pages 295-324.
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 1997. "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1168, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
    7. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    8. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
    9. Din 祲 Afat & Marta G -Puig & Sim osvilla-Rivero, 2015. "The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(43), pages 4607-4629, September.
    10. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
    11. Schinasi, Garry J. & Swamy, P. A. V. B., 1989. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 375-390, September.
    12. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    13. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
    14. Wang, Jian-Xin & Wong, Hoi-In, 1997. "The predictability of Asian exchange rates: evidence from Kalman filter and ARCH estimations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-252, October.
    15. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    16. Néstor A. Le Clech, 2006. "Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 44(2), pages 59-79, Diciembre.
    17. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    18. Ren, Yu & Wang, Qin & Zhang, Xiangyu, 2019. "Short-term exchange rate predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 148-152.
    19. R. Scott Hacker & Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Kristofer Månsson, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials: A Wavelet Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1162-1185, September.
    20. Cheung, Y. -W. & Chinn, M. D., 1998. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 813-830, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:39:y:1995:i:2:p:78-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.sagepub.com/home/aex .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.