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Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino

Author

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  • Néstor A. Le Clech

    (Universidad Nacional de Quilmes (Bernal, Argentina))

Abstract

El objetivo del presente trabajo es el de examinar la calidad de ajuste del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino y su capacidad de predicción en el corto plazo. Los hallazgos obtenidos convalidan las relaciones postuladas por el modelo aplicado y muestran una calidad de predicción en el corto plazo superior a la de un paseo aleatorio. Adicionalmente se implementa un modelo que incluye un mecanismo de corrección del error, que nos indica una velocidad de ajuste hacia los valores de equilibrio extremadamente rápida, corrigiéndose más del 99% del desajuste en 7 meses. Finalmente se presentan algunos comentarios sobre las posibilidades de la política económica.

Suggested Citation

  • Néstor A. Le Clech, 2006. "Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 44(2), pages 59-79, Diciembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:44:y:2006:i:2:p:59-79
    DOI: 10.55444/2451.7321.2006.v44.n2.3831
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelo monetario; tipo de cambio; paridad de poder adquisitivo; PPA; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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