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Models of Financial System Fragility

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  • Iancu, Aurel

    (Complexity Research Department of the National Institute for Economic Research of the Romanian Academy)

Abstract

This survey analyses two types of models: 1. Models based on assumptions of monetary and financial market equilibrium disturbance, in line with mainstream thinking according to which if there is a self-regulating market the units would have rational expectations, and the crisis would be a temporary phenomenon caused by exogenous shocks. Here are the main objectives and features characteristic of three generations of models; 2. Models based on financial instability hypothesis, taking into account the dynamics of financial market, as well as the role of uncertainty, interdependency and dynamic complexity. We present here Minsky’s concept of financial instability and then analyse the content of some simplified models.

Suggested Citation

  • Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:1:p:230-256
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    2. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 130618, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    instability; model generations; balance sheet; hedge units; speculative units; Ponzi units; cyclical fluctuations; complexity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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