IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2012i3p142-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the Romanian Business Cycle Characterized by Chaos?

Author

Listed:
  • Caraiani, Petre

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

I compare the two alternative paradigms of business cycles for the case of the Romanian economy, namely the mainstream view that business cycles are driven by stochastic shocks and the nonlinear view, known as the endogenous business cycles theory, which states that business cycles are driven by deterministic processes. The comparison is based on the run of several tests for nonlinearity and chaos, such as the BDS test or the maximum Lyapunov exponent.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Is the Romanian Business Cycle Characterized by Chaos?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 142-151, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2012:i:3:p:142-151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_12/rjef3_2012p142-151.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan, 2004. "Robustness of Nonlinearity and Chaos Tests to Measurement Error, Inference Method, and Sample Size," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 529-548, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    4. Purica, Ionut & Caraiani, Petre, 2009. "Second Order Dynamics Of Economic Cycles," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 36-47, March.
    5. Scheinkman, Jose A, 1990. "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 33-48, Supplemen.
    6. Brock, W.A., 1988. "Nonlinearity And Complex Dynamics In Economics And Finance," Working papers 360, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    7. Takala, Kari & Viren, Matti, 1996. "Chaos and nonlinear dynamics in financial and nonfinancial time series: Evidence from Finland," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 155-172, August.
    8. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    3. Luis A. Aguirre & Antonio Aguirre, 1997. "A tutorial introduction to nonlinear dynamics in economics," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 7(2), pages 9-47.
    4. Serletis, Apostolos & He, Mingyu & Chowdhury, M.M. Islam, 2023. "Chaos in long-maturity real rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. M. Burton, 1993. "Some Illustrations Of Chaos In Commodity Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 38-50, January.
    6. Kitagawa, Akiomi & Shibata, Akihisa, 2001. "Long gestation in an overlapping generations economy: endogenous cycles and indeterminacy of equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 99-127, February.
    7. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im & Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2025. "Relative Risk Aversion and Business Fluctuations," KIER Working Papers 1110, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Cristi SPULBAR & Mihai NITOI & Cristian STANCIU, 2012. "Identifying The Industry Business Cycle Using The Markov Switching Approach In Central And Eastern Europe," Management and Marketing Journal, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 0(2), pages 293-300, November.
    9. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael, 2008. "Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 582-592, December.
    10. John Stachurski, 2009. "Economic Dynamics: Theory and Computation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012774, December.
    11. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008. "Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
    12. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Externalities in R&D: a route to endogenous fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Perspective on the Current State of Macroeconomic Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 593-605, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel & Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Lemaire, Isabelle, 2018. "Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs, asset pricing, and risk sharing in complete financial markets," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 117-146.
    15. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 87207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
    17. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Gomes, Orlando, 2009. "A two-dimensional non-equilibrium dynamic model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 221-238, September.
    19. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. George-Marios Angeletos & Laurent E. Calvet, 2001. "Incomplete Markets, Growth, and the Business Cycle," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1910, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; nonlinear analysis; chaos; endogenous business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2012:i:3:p:142-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.