IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/integr/0573.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?

Author

Listed:
  • Rose, Andrew K.

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Moser, Christoph

    (ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute)

Abstract

The Doha multilateral round of trade negotiations sponsored by the WTO has been dragging on for over a decade, with no end in sight. In this short paper we assess empirically what determines the duration of trade negotiations, focusing on the span between the start of trade talks and their conclusion. We use data from 88 regional trade agreements between 1988 and 2009, and a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model. Four factors are robust determinants of the length of RTA negotiations. Negotiations are more protracted when there are more countries at the negotiation table, and when the countries are not from the same region. Negotiations between more open and richer countries also finish more quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew K. & Moser, Christoph, 2012. "Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 280-290.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sejong.metapress.com
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Who benefits from regional trade agreements? The view from the stock market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jong Hee Park & Byung Koo Kim, 2020. "Why your neighbor matters: Positions in preferential trade agreement networks and export growth in global value chains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 381-410, November.
    2. Byungyul Park & John Beghin, 2023. "Exploring the impact of economic integration agreements through extreme bounds analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, February.
    3. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    4. Yoram Z. Haftel & Alexander Thompson, 2018. "When do states renegotiate investment agreements? The impact of arbitration," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-48, March.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of Aid for Trade flows on the Accession to the World Trade Organization," EconStor Preprints 261331, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Jonas Gamso & Robert Grosse, 2021. "Trade agreement depth, foreign direct investment, and the moderating role of property rights," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 308-325, June.
    7. Teresa L. Cyrus, 2021. "Why Do Countries Form Regional Trade Agreements? A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 417-434, April.
    8. Lizzette ARROYO & Ramon A. CASTILLO-PONCE, 2019. "The Duration Of Trade Agreement Negotiations," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 19-36.
    9. Florian Mölders, 2016. "On the Path to Trade Liberalisation: Political Regimes in Trade Negotiations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 890-924, July.
    10. Florian Mölders, 2012. "On the Path to Trade Liberalization: Political Regimes in International Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1245, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sokolova, Maria V., 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," Conference papers 332790, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    3. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Wing Him Yeung & Yilisha Pang & Asad Aman, 2020. "South–South Cooperation in South and East Asia: An Event Study of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 54-67, February.
    5. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2020. "Gravity-Model Estimation with Time-Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 8553, CESifo.
    7. Jung, Benjamin, 2022. "The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264125, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan, 2022. "The impact of trade policy on soybean futures in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1152-1163, June.
    9. Lukas Boer & Lukas Menkhoff & Malte Rieth, 2023. "The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 388-406, April.
    10. Crowley, Meredith A. & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2019. "Policy shocks and stock market returns: Evidence from Chinese solar panels," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-169.
    11. Xiaosong Wang & Huan Wu & Le Li, 2022. "Trade policy and return on capital: An empirical analysis based on China's antidumping," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 865-892, January.
    12. Peter H. Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2021. "Dynamic network and own effects on abnormal returns: evidence from China’s stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 487-512, January.
    13. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gabriel Mhonyera & Daniel Francois Meyer, 2023. "The Impact of AfCFTA on Welfare and Trade: Nigeria and South Africa in Light of Core Export Competences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
    16. Gabriele Spilker & Thomas Bernauer & In Song Kim & Helen Milner & Iain Osgood & Dustin Tingley, 2018. "Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 189-242, June.
    17. Peter H. Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2022. "How COVID‐19 travels in‐ and outside of value chains and then affects the stock market: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 523-538, February.
    18. Andreas Dür & Lisa Lechner, 2023. "Winners and Losers From Trade Agreements: Stock Market Reactions to TPP and TTIP," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(4), pages 200-211.
    19. Mohammad M Rahaman, 2016. "Chinese import competition and the provisions for external debt financing in the US," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 47(8), pages 898-928, October.
    20. Gu, Xin & Zhang, Weiqiang & Cheng, Sang, 2021. "How do investors in Chinese stock market react to external uncertainty? An event study to the Sino-US disputes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional; GATT; WTO; Duration; Income; Data; Empirical; Cox; Survival;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yunhoe Kim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desejkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.