IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ambsrv/0032.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Klona, Maria

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the future of the global economies appears gloomy as policy, industry and academia stakeholders assess the immediate adverse effects. This research meta-analysis studies on the impact of epidemics and pandemics on the longer-term performance of national economies covering the past 30 years. The findings indicate that the impact of pandemics on economies for periods of over two years might move from the immediate adverse effects to small positive effects. Several moderators were found to affect this relationship, including socio-economic and methodological factors. The findings agree with a significant amount of existing literature and are in line with the neo-classic economic theories for a possible return to economic growth after a major economic shock. Nevertheless, issues of publication bias should also be taken into consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ambsrv:0032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://digitalcommons.newhaven.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1331&context=americanbusinessreview
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2019. "Corruption and economic growth: New empirical evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    4. Roger M. Harbord & Julian P.T. Higgins, 2008. "Meta-regression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(4), pages 493-519, December.
    5. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    6. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Dominique Foray & Gaetan de Rassenfosse & George Abi Younes & Charles Ayoubi & Omar Ballester & Gabriele Cristelli & Matthias van den Heuvel & Ling Zhou & Gabriele Pellegrino & Patrick Gaulé & Elizab, 2020. "COVID-19: Insights from Innovation Economists," Working Papers 10, Chair of Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy.
      • Younes, George Abi & Ayoubi, Charles & Ballester, Omar & Cristelli, Gabriele & de Rassenfosse, Gaetan & Foray, Dominique & Gaule, Patrick & Pellegrino, Gabriele & van den Heuvel, Matthias & Webster, B, 2020. "COVID-19_Insights from Innovation Economists," SocArXiv b5zae, Center for Open Science.
    9. Chung, Lap Hang, 2015. "Impact of pandemic control over airport economics: Reconciling public health with airport business through a streamlined approach in pandemic control," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 42-53.
    10. Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique, 2020. "The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9211, The World Bank.
    11. Chaido Dritsaki & Pavlos Stamatiou, 2018. "Cobb-Douglas Production Function: The Case of Poland’s Economy," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Nicholas Tsounis & Aspasia Vlachvei (ed.), Advances in Time Series Data Methods in Applied Economic Research, chapter 0, pages 465-483, Springer.
    12. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2011. "A Bright Idea for Measuring Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 194-199, May.
    13. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Epidemics in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Edward Nketiah-Amponsah & Mohammed Abubakari & Priscilla Twumasi Baffour, 2019. "Effect of HIV/AIDS on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Evidence," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 469-480, November.
    15. Kelly R Moran & Sara Y Del Valle, 2016. "A Meta-Analysis of the Association between Gender and Protective Behaviors in Response to Respiratory Epidemics and Pandemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-25, October.
    16. Luigi L. Pasinetti, 2000. "Critique of the neoclassical theory of growth and distribution," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 383-431.
    17. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    18. Robert W. Dimand & Barbara J. Spencer, 2009. "Trevor Swan and the Neoclassical Growth Model," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 107-126, Supplemen.
    19. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    20. Hoyt Bleakley, 2010. "Malaria Eradication in the Americas: A Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-45, April.
    21. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
    22. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    23. Yaya Keho, 2017. "The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1332820-133, January.
    24. Sanghoon Ahn & Philip Hemmings, 2000. "Policy Influences on Economic Growth in OECD Countries: An Evaluation of the Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 246, OECD Publishing.
    25. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2016. "Meta-Analysis and Publication Bias: How Well Does the FAT-PET-PEESE Procedure Work?," Working Papers in Economics 16/26, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    26. Robalino, David A. & Voetberg, Albertus & Picazo, Oscar, 2002. "The macroeconomic impacts of AIDS in Kenya estimating optimal reduction targets for the HIV/AIDS incidence rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 195-218, May.
    27. Oliver Röhn & Aida Caldera Sánchez & Mikkel Hermansen & Morten Rasmussen, 2015. "Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1249, OECD Publishing.
    28. Julie L Rose, 2020. "On the value of economic growth," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 128-153, May.
    29. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    30. Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & van Lent, Laurence & Schwedeler, Markus & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2020. "Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1," CEPR Discussion Papers 14573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Saurabh C. Datta & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2013. "Malaria and Economic Development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, February.
    32. João Ricardo Faria & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Gil-Alana & Estefania Mourelle, 2021. "Self-employment by gender in the EU: convergence and clusters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 717-741, August.
    33. Maksim Vasiev & Kexin Bi & Artem Denisov & Vladimir Bocharnikov, 2020. "How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 7-22.
    34. Christopher Adam & Mark Henstridge & Stevan Lee, 2020. "After the lockdown: macroeconomic adjustment to the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 338-358.
    35. Sebastian Gechert & Thomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2019. "Death to the Cobb-Douglas Production Function," FMM Working Paper 51-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    36. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    37. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    38. Luigi L. Pasinetti, 2000. "Critique of the neoclassical theory of growth and distribution," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 383-431.
    39. Sayema Haque Bidisha & S M Abdullah & Salina Siddiqua & Mohammad Mainul Islam, 2020. "How Does Dependency Ratio Affect Economic Growth In the Long Run? Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(2), pages 47-60, April-Jul.
    40. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: Eurozone, EU, US and Chinese Perspectives," EIIW Discussion paper disbei270, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    41. Fukunari Kimura & Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Dionisius Narjoko & Christopher Findlay, 2020. "Pandemic (COVID‐19) Policy, Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network†," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 3-27, March.
    42. Salisu Waziri & Norashidah Mohamed Nor & Nik Mustapha Raja Abdullah & Peter Adamu, 2016. "Effect of the Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and the Life Expectancy Rate on Economic Growth in SSA Countries: Difference GMM Approach," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 212-212, April.
    43. Dana Hájková & Jaromír Hurník, 2007. "Cobb-Douglas Production Function: The Case of a Converging Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(9-10), pages 465-476, October.
    44. Alberto Cavallo, 2024. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 902-917, June.
    45. Liang-Chou Huang & Shu-Hwa Chang, 2014. "Revisit the nexus of trade openness and GDP growth: Does the financial system matter?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 1038-1058, October.
    46. Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2017. "Politics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 229-273, January.
    47. Rasaki Stephen Dauda, 2019. "HIV/AIDS and economic growth: Evidence from West Africa," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 324-337, January.
    48. Tomáš Havránek & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Pedro Bom & Jerome Geyer‐Klingeberg & Ichiro Iwasaki & W. Robert Reed & Katja Rost & R. C. M. van Aert, 2020. "Reporting Guidelines For Meta‐Analysis In Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 469-475, July.
    49. Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Irina E. Kalabikhina, 2020. "Demographic and social issues of the pandemic," Population and Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(2), pages 103-122, May.
    51. Alan Siu & Y. C. Richard Wong, 2004. "Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 62-83.
    52. Christopher Adam & Mark Henstridge & Stevan Lee, 0. "After the lockdown: macroeconomic adjustment to the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 338-358.
    53. Labini, Paolo Sylos, 1995. "Why the interpretation of the Cobb-Douglas production function must be radically changed," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 485-504, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edward Nketiah-Amponsah & Mohammed Abubakari & Priscilla Twumasi Baffour, 2019. "Effect of HIV/AIDS on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Evidence," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 469-480, November.
    2. Yugang He & Yinhui Wang, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic: Fresh Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Bidzha, Mashudu Lucas & Ngepah, Nicholas & Greyling, Talita, 2024. "The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 368-387.
    4. Nepp, Alexander & Okhrin, Ostap & Egorova, Julia & Dzhuraeva, Zarnigor & Zykov, Alexander, 2022. "What threatens stock markets more - The coronavirus or the hype around it?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 519-539.
    5. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401, March.
    6. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "The long-term economic effects of pandemics: toward an evolutionary approach [Epidemics and trust: the case of the Spanish flu]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 715-735.
    8. Michael Buchner, 2020. "Fiscal Policy in an Age of Secular Stagnation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 398-429, September.
    9. Galiani, Sebastian, 2022. "Pandemic economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 269-275.
    10. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    11. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    12. Mabugu, Ramos E. & Maisonnave, Helene & Henseler, Martin & Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret & Makochekanwa, Albert, 2023. "Implications of COVID-19 and mitigation measures on gender and the Zimbabwean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. Avi J. Cohen, 2003. "Retrospectives: Whatever Happened to the Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 199-214, Winter.
    14. Archibong, Belinda & Annan, Francis & Ekhator-Mobayode, Uche, 2023. "The epidemic effect: Epidemics, institutions and human capital development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 549-566.
    15. Anıl BÖLÜKOĞLU, 2019. "Demand Regime of Turkey: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    16. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    17. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    18. Md. Saiful Islam & Saleh Saud Alsaif & Talal Alsaif, 2022. "Trade Openness, Government Consumption, and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia: ARDL Cointegration Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    19. Lukman O. Oyelami & Matthew I. Ogbuagu & Olufemi M. Saibu, 2022. "Dynamic Interaction of COVID-19 Incidence and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Nigeria," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 1009-1023, October.
    20. Emiliano Brancaccio & Giuseppe Fontana, 2013. "'Solvency rule' versus 'Taylor rule': an alternative interpretation of the relation between monetary policy and the economic crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(1), pages 17-33.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ambsrv:0032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amber Montano (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbnhaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.