IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/aodasc/v9y2022i5d10.1007_s40745-022-00407-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Interaction of COVID-19 Incidence and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Lukman O. Oyelami

    (Nigerian Institute of Economic and Social Research and Economics Unit, Distance Learning Institute University of Lagos)

  • Matthew I. Ogbuagu

    (Federal University Oye-Ekiti)

  • Olufemi M. Saibu

    (University of Lagos)

Abstract

The incursion of COVID-19 into global space has constituted both public health emergency and economic crisis, thus there is need to investigate the transmission of inherent uncertainty associated with the pandemic on stock markets. Based on this, this study investigates the dynamic interaction of COVID-19 incidence and stock market performance in Nigeria. The study uses daily time series data between 2/4/2020 and 8/8/2020 of All Share Index (ASI), COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases, Nigerian borrowing rate and exchange rate to conduct the analysis. Sequel to careful econometric investigation of data, vector autoregressive model was adopted for estimation due to the dynamic nature of the study. The estimation results show that the lagged value of COVID-19 infections exerts negative impact on ASI; specifically, a unit increase in COVID-19 infections causes ASI to fall by 0.066%. Similarly, the lagged value of ASI exerts negative impact on COVID-19 cases. Equally notable, a unit increase in ASI causes covid-19 cases to fall by 0.02% though it is not statistically significant. The study concludes that COVID-19 has a negative effect on Nigerian stock market performance; therefore, apart from small and medium enterprises government may need to extend stimulus package to public quoted firms as part of the efforts to bring the economy back on track.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukman O. Oyelami & Matthew I. Ogbuagu & Olufemi M. Saibu, 2022. "Dynamic Interaction of COVID-19 Incidence and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Nigeria," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 1009-1023, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aodasc:v:9:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s40745-022-00407-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s40745-022-00407-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40745-022-00407-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40745-022-00407-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    2. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    3. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2021. "A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    5. Chinenye Ifeoma Nwokolo & Matthew Ikechukwu Ogbuagu & Onyebuchi Iwegbu, 2020. "Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on the Global Economy: Demand and Supply Shocks," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 50-60, August.
    6. Christopher Adam & Mark Henstridge & Stevan Lee, 2020. "After the lockdown: macroeconomic adjustment to the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 338-358.
    7. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    8. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Aman Khakharia & Vruddhi Shah & Sankalp Jain & Jash Shah & Amanshu Tiwari & Prathamesh Daphal & Mahesh Warang & Ninad Mehendale, 2021. "Outbreak Prediction of COVID-19 for Dense and Populated Countries Using Machine Learning," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    2. Mahata, Ajit & Rai, Anish & Nurujjaman, Md. & Prakash, Om, 2021. "Modeling and analysis of the effect of COVID-19 on the stock price: V and L-shape recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    3. Peng, Yi-Ting & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Xiang, Feiyun, 2024. "Has the COVID-19 pandemic shock transmitted to the u.s. stock market: Evidence using bootstrap (A)symmetric fourier granger causality test in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Mabugu, Ramos E. & Maisonnave, Helene & Henseler, Martin & Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret & Makochekanwa, Albert, 2023. "Implications of COVID-19 and mitigation measures on gender and the Zimbabwean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Deev, Oleg & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2022. "How to calm down the markets? The effects of COVID-19 economic policy responses on financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Edwin Yingi, 2022. "Beyond the pandemic: Implications of COVID-19 on regional economic integration in Southern Africa," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(2), pages 270-279, March.
    8. Elgammal, Mohammed M. & Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Alshami, Abdullah, 2021. "Price and volatility spillovers between global equity, gold, and energy markets prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Wenbo Wang & Hail Park, 2021. "How Vulnerable Are Financial Markets to COVID-19? A Comparative Study of the US and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Wang, Wenhao & Işık, Özcan, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic impact on banking sector: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Bora Aktan, 2022. "Emerging equity market reaction to pandemic prevention policy: Evidence from regression discontinuity design," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 40(2), pages 421-439.
    13. Theodoros Daglis & Ioannis G. Melissaropoulos & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on global stock markets: early linear and non-linear evidence for Italy," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 485-495, April.
    14. Gu, Tiantian & Venkateswaran, Anand & Erath, Marc, 2023. "Impact of fiscal stimulus on volatility: A cross-country analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Guven, Murat & Cetinguc, Basak & Guloglu, Bulent & Calisir, Fethi, 2022. "The effects of daily growth in COVID-19 deaths, cases, and governments’ response policies on stock markets of emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. Martins, António Miguel & Cró, Susana, 2022. "Airline stock markets reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak and vaccines: An event study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    17. Rai, Anish & Mahata, Ajit & Nurujjaman, Md & Majhi, Sushovan & Debnath, Kanish, 2022. "A sentiment-based modeling and analysis of stock price during the COVID-19: U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    18. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Jacob, Joshy & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and debt financing by firms: Unravelling the channels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Fang,Sheng & Goh,Chorching & Li,Shaomin & Xu,L. Colin, 2022. "Firm Resources, Strategies, and Survival and Growth during COVID-19: Evidence from Two-WaveGlobal Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9997, The World Bank.
    20. Markus Eller & Reiner Martin & Lukas Vashold, 2021. "CESEE’s macroprudential policy response in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/21, pages 55-69.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:aodasc:v:9:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s40745-022-00407-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.