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Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada

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  • Morel, Louis

    (Département des recherches)

  • Perron, Benoit

    (Département de sciences économiques)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the response of Canadian net exports to variations in the Canadian multilateral exchange rate. Economic theory suggests that if the sum of import and export elasticities is greater than one, a real currency depreciation will imply an increase in net exports, the so-called Marshall-Lerner condition. By estimating a net exports model, using four different cointegration techniques and data from the first quarter of 1980 to the first quarter of 2002, our study confirms the empirical validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition for Canada. This result is robust to the cointegration technique employed and to the foreign real GDP measure used. Our results also show that net exports of services are more sensitive to real exchange rate fluctuations than net exports of goods. However, the response of net exports to changes in Canadian real GDP and changes in foreign real GDP is sensitive to the foreign GDP measure and to the estimation technique used. Le but de la présente étude est d’analyser empiriquement la réponse des exportations nettes canadiennes aux variations du taux de change multilatéral canadien. La théorie économique nous suggère que, si la somme des élasticités des importations et des exportations est supérieure à un, une dépréciation réelle de la devise entraîne une hausse des exportations nettes. Ceci est mieux connu sous le nom de la condition Marshall-Lerner. En estimant un modèle d’exportations nettes, par quatre différentes méthodes de coïntégration et en utilisant des données allant du premier trimestre de 1980 au premier trimestre de 2002, notre étude confirme la validité empirique de la condition Marshall-Lerner au Canada. Ce résultat est robuste peu importe la méthode de coïntégration utilisée et peu importe la mesure du PIB réel étranger utilisée. Nos résultats montrent également que les exportations nettes de services sont plus sensibles aux variations du taux de change réel que les exportations nettes de biens. Finalement, la réponse des exportations nettes aux variations du PIB réel canadien et du PIB réel étranger est sensible à la mesure du PIB étranger utilisée, ainsi qu’à la méthode d’estimation utilisée.

Suggested Citation

  • Morel, Louis & Perron, Benoit, 2003. "Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 481-502, Décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:79:y:2003:i:4:p:481-502
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    1. Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 102-116, February.
    2. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
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    1. Christophe RAULT & Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE & Thouraya HADJ AMOR, 2009. "International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp970, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Chassem, Nacisse Palissy, 2011. "Effets de long terme du taux de change réel sur la balance commerciale nominale et réelle en zone Franc africaine [Long-run effects of real exchange rate on the nominal and real trade balance in Af," MPRA Paper 30252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.

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