IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/30252.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effets de long terme du taux de change réel sur la balance commerciale nominale et réelle en zone Franc africaine
[Long-run effects of real exchange rate on the nominal and real trade balance in African Franc zone]

Author

Listed:
  • Chassem, Nacisse Palissy

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the long-run effects of changes in real exchange rate on the nominal (in value) and real (in volume) trade balance for the countries of the African Franc zone. These countries together have a common currency: the CFA franc, whose parity with the euro is fixed. By applying the cointegration bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) on annual data from 1970 to 2006, the study shows, for each of the countries studied, the existence of a long-run relationship between the real trade balance, the real national GDP, real world GDP and the real exchange rate. In addition, the study reverses the empirical validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition for almost all countries of the African Franc zone. On the contrary, the depreciation of the real exchange rate deteriorates the nominal trade balance of these countries. This result could be attributed to the value effect of the depreciation of the real exchange rate, but also to the contraction of the volume effect due to the low competitiveness of exports from these countries, coupled with the strong dependence of their economies in relation to imports of capital goods and equipment and certain consumer goods prized by the population. These last statements are confirmed by the effect on the real trade balance of the depreciation of the real exchange rate which is negative or null for at least 10 of the 14 countries of the African Franc zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Chassem, Nacisse Palissy, 2011. "Effets de long terme du taux de change réel sur la balance commerciale nominale et réelle en zone Franc africaine [Long-run effects of real exchange rate on the nominal and real trade balance in Af," MPRA Paper 30252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30252
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30252/1/MPRA_paper_30252.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwalingana, Samson & Nkuna, Onelie, 2009. "The Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in Malawi," MPRA Paper 14694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:18:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Mah, Jai S., 2000. "An empirical examination of the disaggregated import demand of Korea--the case of information technology products," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 237-244.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1998. "Cointegration Approach to Estimate the Long-Run Trade Elasticities in LDCs," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 89-96.
    7. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
    8. Tuck Cheong Tang & Mahendhiran Nair, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of Malaysian import demand function: reassessment from the bounds test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 293-296.
    9. Drama, Bedi Guy Herve, 2010. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Cote d’Ivoire: Evidence from the Cointegration Analysis and Error-Correction Models," MPRA Paper 21810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Morel, Louis & Perron, Benoit, 2003. "Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 481-502, Décembre.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the 'bounds' testing approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    2. Chassem, Nacisse Palissy, 2011. "Hypothèse de Thirlwall: cas des pays de la zone Franc [Thirlwall’s hypothesis : the case of countries of the Franc Zone]," MPRA Paper 29990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. M. Adetunji Babatunde & Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2010. "Explaining Nigeria's import demand behaviour: a bound testing approach," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 167-187, July.
    4. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the 'bounds' testing approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
    5. Siong Hook Law, 2008. "Does a Country's Openness to Trade and Capital Accounts Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from Malaysia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 161-177, June.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    7. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    8. Inthiphone Xaiyavong & Toshihisa Toyoda, 2016. "Currency Substitution in Laos," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 67-89, March.
    9. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    10. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, January.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Rehman & Nurul Mahdzan, 2014. "Linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1511-1535, May.
    12. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Jayaraman, T.K. & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2009. "Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2182-2189, June.
    14. Mohammad Sharik Essa & Evangelos Giouvris, 2020. "Oil Price, Oil Price Implied Volatility (OVX) and Illiquidity Premiums in the US: (A)symmetry and the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-40, April.
    15. Abdul Jalil & Samia Manan & Sundus Saleemi, 2016. "Estimating the growth effects of services sector: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    16. Tsangyao Chang & Yuan-Hong Ho & Chiung-Ju Huang, 2005. "A Reexamination Of South Korea¡¯S Aggregate Import Demand Function: The Bounds Test Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 119-128, June.
    17. Khurram Ashfaq Baluch & Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari, 2012. "Price and Income Elasticity of Imports: The Case of Pakistan," Working Papers id:4899, eSocialSciences.
    18. Eliza, Nor & M., Azali & Law, Siong-Hook & Lee, Chin, 2008. "Demand For International Reserves in ASEAN-5 Economies," MPRA Paper 11735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mallory Mindy & Lence Sergio H., 2012. "Testing for Cointegration in the Presence of Moving Average Errors," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-68, November.
    20. Abu N. M. Wahid & Abdul Jalil, 2010. "Financial Development and GDP Volatility in China," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 39(1‐2), pages 27-41, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    eal exchange rate; Trade balance; Marshall-Lerner condition; Bounds testing approach of cointegration; African Franc zone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.