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Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States

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  • Marquez, Jaime

Abstract

Most analyses of imports use brief, postwar samples and offer a large range of elasticity estimates suggesting that the role of income and prices in determining imports is not known with any precision. This paper offers an analysis of that role using data since 1890 for Canada, Japan, and the United States. The elasticities of the log-linear model are estimated and found to be inconsistent with the view that income and prices affect imports. Optimization models are considered and found to predict secular changes in income and price elasticities and explain the dispersion of estimates of the literature. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 102-116, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:7:y:1999:i:1:p:102-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "Is There J-Curve Effect In The Commodity Trade Of Singapore With Malaysia? An Empirical Study," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 567-591, June.
    3. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    4. Bornali Bhandari, 2013. "Cross-Price Effects and US Trade Elasticities," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(3), pages 273-313, August.
    5. Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2007. "Have US–Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 548-566.
    6. Vesselin Hadjiev, 2001. "Econometric Evaluation of the Elasticity of the Foreign Trade through Bi-Spectral Analysis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 150-167.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2015. "The Marshall-Lerner condition at commodity level: Evidence from Korean-U.S. trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1136-1147.
    8. Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2016. "Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach," Working Papers 1614, Banco de España.
    9. Patrick Alexander & Ian Keay, 2017. "The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy," Staff Working Papers 17-18, Bank of Canada.
    10. Strauß Hubert, 2003. "Globalisierung und die Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels / Forecasting Germany’s Exports and Imports in the Era of Globalization," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(2), pages 176-203, April.
    11. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2004. "Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine," Staff Working Papers 04-3, Bank of Canada.
    12. Strauß, Hubert, 2000. "Eingleichungsmodelle zur Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels," Kiel Working Papers 987, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Lyubomir Lyubenov, 2022. "The impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate on Bulgaria’s foreign trade," Economics and computer science, Publishing house "Knowledge and business" Varna, issue 1, pages 21-28.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Brazil--US commodity trade and the J-Curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-13, January.
    15. Klaassen, Franc, 2004. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 817-839, September.
    16. Michaelis, Jochen, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in the presence of pricing-to-market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 564-584, September.
    17. Alexander, Patrick D. & Keay, Ian, 2018. "A general equilibrium analysis of Canada’s national policy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Jaime Marquez, 2000. "The Puzzling Income Elasticity of US Imports," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1128, Econometric Society.
    19. Clements, Kenneth W. & Vo, Long Hai & Mariano, Marc Jim, 2021. "Modelling import penetration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    21. Catherine L. Mann & Katharina Plück, 2005. "The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective," Working Paper Series WP05-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    22. Douglas A. Irwin, 2007. "Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Losses from U.S. Tariffs, 1859-1961," NBER Working Papers 13450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "Again on trade elasticities: evidence from a selected sample of countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-287, December.
    24. Marcelo Olarreaga & Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita, 2004. "Estimating Import Demand and Export Supply Elasticities," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 368, Econometric Society.
    25. Morel, Louis & Perron, Benoit, 2003. "Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 481-502, Décembre.

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