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Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance

Author

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  • Robert P. Hagemann

    (OECD)

  • Giuseppe Nicoletti

    (OECD)

Abstract

Recent swings in fertility rates, combined with anticipated increases in life expectancy, are expected to result in a significant increase in the number and proportion of elderly persons in the first half of the next century. This "ageing" of OECD populations is expected to have widespread impacts, affecting labour markets, the composition and level of consumption and output, national rates of saving and the rate of capital accumulation, etc. A widely recognized effect of ageing will be the pressures it will place on public sector finances as the share of future output transferred to a large dependent population rises. This paper discusses some of the potential economic impacts of ageing. It also presents an analysis of its impacts on public pension financing requirements, with particular emphasis on selected OECD countries -- Germany, Japan, Sweden and the United States. It is shown that, where desirable, future increases in retirement age and benefit reductions could help reduce ... Les évolutions récentes des taux de natalité, s'ajoutant aux hausses anticipées de l'espérance de vie, auront pour effet de faire croître fortement le nombre et la proportion des personnes âgées dans la première moitié du siècle prochain. On s'attend à ce que ce "viellissement" de la population ait de multiples effets économiques, affectant les marchés du travail, la structure et le niveau de la consommation et de la production, les taux d'épargne nationaux et les rythmes d'accumulation du capital, etc. On s'accorde à reconnaître qu'il en résultera une pression sur les finances publiques, au fur et à mesure qu'une part croissante de la production devra être transférée à une population dépendante plus nombreuse. Cette étude traite de certaines des incidences économiques potentielles du vieillissement de la population. Elle tente également de cerner l'impact de ce phénomène sur les charges de financement des retraites publiques, notamment en ce qui concerne quatre pays de l'OCDE -- ...

Suggested Citation

  • Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 61, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:61-en
    DOI: 10.1787/401111720150
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Creedy & Penelope S. Taylor, 1993. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(3), pages 56-68, July.
    2. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    3. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    4. Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo & Mr. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina & Jorge Puig & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Guillermo Javier Vuletin, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 2019/289, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Marija Andriuskaite, 2017. "Economic Implications Of Ageing Lithuanian Population," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 8(1).
    6. Giang, Thanh Long & Pfau, Wade Donald, 2008. "Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 9931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    8. Luca Beltrametti & Matteo Della Valle, 2011. "Does the implicit pension debt mean anything after all?," CeRP Working Papers 118, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    9. Oksanen, Heikki, 2014. "Public finance sustainability gap and raising the retirement age, abstract and full summary," Research Reports 177, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Beltrametti, Luca & Della Valle, Matteo, 2011. "Does pension debt mean anything after all?," MPRA Paper 29694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:8:y:2007:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. van Dalen, Hendrik P., 1996. "Pitfalls in the economic analysis of aging," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 157-184, April.
    13. Ismael Sanz & Francisco Javier Velázquez, 2002. "Determinants of the Composition of Government Expenditure by Functions," European Economy Group Working Papers 13, European Economy Group.
    14. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. E Philip Davis, 2005. "Challenges Posed by Ageing to Financial and Monetary Stability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 30(4), pages 542-564, October.
    16. Georgios Symeonidis & Platon Tinios & Michail Chouzouris, 2021. "Public Pensions and Implicit Debt: An Investigation for EU Member States Using Ageing Working Group 2021 Projections," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, October.
    17. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    18. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Spesa pensionistica:quanto conta la crescita economica?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 54(215), pages 273-308.

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