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The Economics of Population Ageing

Author

Listed:
  • John Stephenson
  • Grant Scobie

    (The University of Auckland
    The Treasury)

Abstract

Demographic forecasts predict that over the next fifty years the proportion of people in New Zealand over the age of 65 will more than double, from 12 percent in 1999 to 26 percent in 2050. This paper reviews potential economic implications of this demographic change in the following broad categories: Demographic change, Labour Markets, Fiscal Impacts, Capital Markets, and Long-run economic growth effects. A synopsis is made of the key economic and demographic issues relating to each category, and the paper highlights those issues to be prioritised in further research. The paper also questions the existing frameworks and methodologies that have been used to study population ageing. Two issues stand out in this regard. Firstly, there is a tendency to view population ageing as a “static” phenomenon. The economic implications of population ageing are pervasive and complex. Future research may benefit from attention to individual behavioural responses to ageing and into the underlying demographic dynamics of population ageing. Secondly, the future economic impacts of an ageing population are inherently uncertain. Future research could well incorporate methodological approaches that attempt to account for these inherent uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/04
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp02-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ross Guest & John Bryant & Grant Scobie, 2004. "Population ageing in New Zealand: Implications for living standards and the optimal rate of national saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20.
    2. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Omoniyi B. Alimi & David C. Maré & Jacques Poot, 2018. "More Pensioners, Less Income Inequality? The Impact of Changing Age Composition on Inequality in Big Cities and Elsewhere," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roger R. Stough & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien (ed.), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets, chapter 0, pages 133-159, Springer.
    4. Omoniyi B Alimi & David C Maré & Jacques Poot, 2017. "More pensioners, less income inequality?," Working Papers 17_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Ageing; Economics and Demographic Change;

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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