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Plus-values, consommation et épargne. Une estimation de l'effet richesse aux États- Unis et au Royaume- Uni

Author

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  • Corinne Houizot
  • Hélène Baudchon
  • Catherine Mathieu
  • Francisco Serranito

Abstract

[fre] La forte hausse des cours boursiers, observée dans la seconde moitié des années 1990, est fréquemment évoquée pour expliquer le dynamisme, au cours de cette période, de la consommation des ménages américains et britanniques, et son corollaire, la baisse du taux d'épargne.. Cet article analyse les déterminants de la consommation des ménages dans ces deux pays, et en particulier l'importance de l'effet richesse. Il comporte trois parties : un survol des évolutions de la consommation, de l'épargne et de la richesse des ménages au cours des quarante dernières années ; un rappel de la théorie et des modèles à tester ; enfin la présentation des résultats économétriques.. Aux États-Unis, d'après nos estimations, une augmentation d'un dollar de la richesse des ménages conduit à un accroissement de la consommation de l'ordre de 5,5 cents, soit des résultats proches de ceux publiés depuis Ando et Modigliani (1963). La forte baisse du taux d'épargne dans la période récente proviendrait essentiellement de la hausse de la Bourse. Au Royaume- Uni, une livre de richesse financière ou immobilière supplémentaire serait consommée à hauteur de 5 pence environ. Les fluctuations de la richesse immobilière résultant de la bulle immobilière de la fin des années 1980 et de son éclatement auraient fortement influencé le taux d'épargne. L'augmentation de la richesse financière aurait contribué positivement à la baisse du taux d'épargne au cours des dernières années. [eng] Wealth effects and consumer spending in the US and the UK. Corinne Houizot, Helene Baudchon, Catherine Mathieu and Francisco Serranito. The sharp rise in stock market priees over the second half of the 90's is said to have boosted household consumption in the US. Changes in housing and net financial wealth are also said to have had an impact on household consumption in the UK. This paper examines the impact of wealth effects on consumer spending in these countries. Several definitions of wealth are considered. Our empirical results show that a dollar's increase in net financial wealth generates a 5 cents' increase in consumption. The marginal propensity to consume out of net wealth is found to be similar the UK. Wealth effects explain the fall the household saving rate over the second half of the 90's.They have also played significant role in the UK.. JEL codes : E 21, E 27

Suggested Citation

  • Corinne Houizot & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Francisco Serranito, 2000. "Plus-values, consommation et épargne. Une estimation de l'effet richesse aux États- Unis et au Royaume- Uni," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(1), pages 197-240.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_73_1_1593
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.2000.1593
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1593
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    2. Carol C. Bertaut, 2002. "Equity prices, household wealth, and consumption growth in foreign industrial countries: wealth effects in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 724, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Idrys Fransmel OKOMBI, 2018. "Empirical Measure of Wealth Effects in Household Consumption: The Case of Congo," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(5), pages 33-44, September.
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    7. Ruxandra Vilag & George Ionescu & Iuliana Predescu & Stela Toader, 2010. "The Romanian Response To The Financial Crisis," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(4-1), pages 37-47, Winter-Sp.

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