IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2002-238.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Norbert Funke

Abstract

Using a panel of 16 emerging markets, the paper finds a small but statistically significant effect of stock market developments on private consumption spending. In the short run, a 10 percent decline in the annual real stock market return is associated with a reduction in real private consumption by around 0.1-0.3 percent on average. There is evidence that the link between stock market fluctuations and private consumption has become stronger during the 1990s as stock markets in emerging economies have broadened and deepened. However, there is no significant evidence that the influence is asymmetric. Stock price declines do not have a different impact on consumption than stock price increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Norbert Funke, 2002. "Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2002/238, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16219
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 257-300.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    4. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2001. "Emerging equity markets and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 465-504, December.
    6. Morris A. Davis & Michael G. Palumbo, 2001. "A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    8. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    9. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
    10. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    11. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    12. Shirvani Hassan & Wilbrate Barry, 2000. "Does Consumption Respond More Strongly to Stock Market Declines Than to Increases?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 41-49.
    13. Utpal Bhattacharya & Hazem Daouk, 2002. "The World Price of Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 75-108, February.
    14. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    15. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization: Allocative Efficiency or Animal Spirits?," NBER Working Papers 8908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    17. Mr. Torsten M Sloek & Mr. Peter F. Christoffersen, 2000. "Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?," IMF Working Papers 2000/103, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Jul), pages 29-51.
    19. Mr. Norbert Funke & Ms. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, 2001. "Stock Market Liberalizations: Financial and Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Working Papers 2001/193, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
    21. William G. Gale & John Sabelhaus, 1999. "Perspectives on the Household Saving Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 181-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Sanchita Mukherjee & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/229, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sohrab Abizadeh & Dennis Ng, 2009. "Equities, liquidity and consumption: does the stock market matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1187-1196.
    3. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Norbert Funke, 2004. "Stock market liberalizations: Financial and macroeconomic implications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 730-761, September.
    4. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2013. "Stock Market Wealth Effects in Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(1).
    5. Moawia Alghalith & Tracy Polius, 2013. "The Relationship between the Stock Market and Consumption," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(1), pages 135-138, March.
    6. Tuan Viet Le, 2020. "Freedom of the Press and Equity Returns: Empirical Investigation in Emerging Markets," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(3), pages 359-377, September.
    7. Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2010. "Determinants of Private Saving in Turkey: An Update," Working Papers 2010/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2003. "Property of stocks and wealth effects on consumption," NIPE Working Papers 2/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vansteenkiste, Isabel S., 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging market economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 155-166.
    3. Bhupal Singh, 2012. "How important is the stock market wealth effect on consumption in India?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 915-927, June.
    4. Funke, Norbert, 2004. "Is there a stock market wealth effect in emerging markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 417-421, June.
    5. Andriy Avramenko & Michael R. Donihue, 2006. "Decomposing consumer wealth effects: evidence on the role of real estate assets following the wealth cycle of 1990-2002," Working Papers 06-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Bruno Eugène & Philippe Jeanfils & Benoît Robert, 2003. "La consommation privée en Belgique," Working Paper Document 39, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Luis Miguel Pacheco & Jose Martins Barata, 2005. "Residential and Stock Market Effects on Consumption across Europe," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 255-278.
    9. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1050, European Central Bank.
    10. Ludwig Alexander & Sløk Torsten, 2004. "The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, March.
    11. Simone Salotti, 2012. "Wealth Effects in the US: Evidence from the Combination of Two Surveys," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 67-98.
    12. Yener Coskun & Burak Sencer Atasoy & Giacomo Morri & Esra Alp, 2018. "Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, June.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Ludwig, Alexander & Sløk, Torsten, 2004. "The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    15. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2013. "Stock Market Wealth Effects in Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(1).
    16. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
    17. Monica Paiella, 2009. "The Stock Market, Housing And Consumer Spending: A Survey Of The Evidence On Wealth Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 947-973, December.
    18. Salotti, Simone, 2010. "An appraisal of the wealth effect in the US: evidence from pseudo-panel data," MPRA Paper 27351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2010.
    19. Paiella, Monica, 2007. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 189-205, March.
    20. Maruška Vizek, 2011. "The Influence of Stock Market and Housing Wealth on Consumption Expenditures in Transition Countries," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 3(1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.