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Plus-values, consommation et épargne

Author

Listed:
  • Corinne Houizot

    (Institut Curie [Paris])

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Francisco Serranito

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

La forte hausse des cours boursiers, observée dans la seconde moitié des années 1990, est fréquemment évoquée pour expliquer le dynamisme, au cours de cette période, de la consommation des ménages américains et britanniques, et son corollaire, la baisse du taux d'épargne. Cet article analyse les déterminants de la consommation des ménages dans ces deux pays, et en particulier l'importance de l'effet richesse. Il comporte trois parties : un survol des évolutions de la consommation, de l'épargne et de la richesse des ménages au cours des quarante dernières années ; un rappel de la théorie et des modèles à tester ; enfin la présentation des résultats économétriques. Aux États-Unis, d'après nos estimations, une augmentation d'un dollar de la richesse des ménages conduit à un accroissement de la consommation de l'ordre de 5,5 cents, soit des résultats proches de ceux publiés depuis Ando et Modigliani (1963). La forte baisse du taux d'épargne dans la période récente proviendrait essentiellement de la hausse de la Bourse. Au Royaume- Uni, une livre de richesse financière ou immobilière supplémentaire serait consommée à hauteur de 5 pence environ. Les fluctuations de la richesse immobilière résultant de la bulle immobilière de la fin des années 1980 et de son éclatement auraient fortement influencé le taux d'épargne. L'augmentation de la richesse financière aurait contribué positivement à la baisse du taux d'épargne au cours des dernières années.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinne Houizot & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Francisco Serranito, 2000. "Plus-values, consommation et épargne," Post-Print hal-03458494, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03458494
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.2000.1593
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458494
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    References listed on IDEAS

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