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Bulletin de santé des modèles macro-économétriques

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  • Pierre Malgrange

Abstract

[eng] The current state of macroeconometric models . . This contribution aims at presenting in a non technical way the present state of macro-economic modelling after forty years of practice and critisism. Macroeconometric models are assessed as sophisticated tools and their usefulness and limitations are discussed in the light of recent developments of macroeconomic theory as well as of econometric methods. It is concluded that there do not exist, at the time, real substitute for conventional structural modelling. [fre] Bulletin de santé des modèles macro-économétriques. . L'objet de cette contribution est de faire le point de manière non technique sur l'état actuel de la modélisation macro-économique après quarante ans de pratique et de critiques. Les instruments sophistiqués que sont les modèles macro­économétriques sont évalués, et leurs portées et limites discutées, à la lumière des développements récents tant de la théorie que des méthodes économétriques. La conclusion est que la modélisation structurelle de facture traditionnelle n'a pas, à l'heure actuelle, de véritable substitut.

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  • Pierre Malgrange, 1992. "Bulletin de santé des modèles macro-économétriques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(4), pages 565-576.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1992_num_43_4_409371
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Malgrange, Pierre, 1989. "Forces et faiblesses des modèles macroéconométriques," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8901, CEPREMAP.
    2. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-212, August.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    5. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    6. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Fève, 2005. "Voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 147-179.

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