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Où va la productivité du travail ?

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  • Jean Le Dem
  • Frédéric Lerais

Abstract

[eng] Labour Productivity Trends. An International Comparison Between Large Industrialized Countries - This article aims at determining the general trends of apparent labour productivity in the main industrialized tries and at analysing their shifts and the factors which can explain them. The study was conducted in two steps: first, a descriptive analysis in two sectors (the manufacturing industry and sheltered sectors) contrasts the general fall in productivity gains after the first oil crisis with the different world trends during the last decade - there were a recovery in the United States and the United Kingdom, a continued slowdown in continental Europe, and steady trends in Japan. The article goes through the various possible interpretations of these differences between countries. Among the latter, cyclical factors and the relative cost of capital and labour are noticeable. Their role can be tested in simple econometric models derived from the theories of labour demand. . The second step consists in trying to find out for each country, thanks to these models, if the average long-term trends have been steady in the past or if, on the contrary, noticeable swings have appeared between each economic cycle. This econometric analysis confirms the existence of revealing sudden changes. On the other hand, the fluctuations in the relative labour costs have more affect on productivity in sheltered sectors than in industries. [fre] Cet article se propose de préciser les grandes tendances de la productivité apparente du travail dans les principaux pays industriels, d'en analyser les inflexions et les facteurs explicatifs. L'étude a été menée en deux étapes : une analyse descriptive en deux branches (industrie manufacturière et branches abritées) oppose le tassement général des gains de productivité après le premier choc pétrolier et les évolutions divergentes au cours de la dernière décennie : reprise aux Etats-Unis et au Royaume-Uni, poursuite du ralentissement en Europe continentale, maintien des tendances au Japon. Les interprétations possibles de ces différences internationales sont alors passées en revue. Parmi ces dernières, les facteurs cycliques et le coût relatif du capital et du travail retiennent l'attention. Leur rôle est, en effet, susceptible d'être testé dans des modèles économétriques simples dérivés des théories de la demande de travail. . On cherche alors à savoir, pays par pays et à l'aide de ces modèles, si le rythme tendanciel est stable sur le passé ou si, au contraire, des ruptures sensibles apparaissent entre chaque cycle économique. Cette analyse économétrique confirme l'existence de points de rupture significatifs. La productivité dans les branches abritées est, par ailleurs, plus sensible aux fluctuations des coûts relatifs du travail que dans l'industrie manufacturière. [spa] ¿ Hacia dónde se dirige la productividad del trabajo? Una comparación internacional de los grandes países industrializados - Este artículo tiene el propósito de especificar las grandes tendencias de la productividad aparente del trabajo en los principales países industrializados y de analizar las inflexiones y los factores explicativos de las mismas. El estudio se llevó a cabo en dos etapas: un análisis descriptivo en dos sectores (industria manufacturera y sectores protegidos) opone el estancamiento general de los beneficios de productividad luego del primer choque petrolero y las evoluciones divergentes en el transcurso del último decenio: despegue en los EEUU y en el Reino Unido, mantenimiento de la ralentización en Europa continental y mantenimiento de las tendencias en el Japon. Se examinaron las interpretaciones posibles de tales diferencias internacionales. Entre estas últimas se retienen . los factores ciclicos y el costo relativo del capital y del trabajo. Su roi es susceptible de ser evaluado en modelos econométricos simples derivados de las teorías de la demanda de trabajo. . Se trata de saber, pals por país, con la ayuda de esos modelos, si el ritmo de la tendencia es estable en el pasado o si por el contrario surgen rupturas sensibles entre cada ciclo económico. Este análisis econometrico confirma la existencia de puntos de ruptura significativos. La productividad en los sectores protegidos es más sensible a las fluctuaciones de los costos relativos del trabajo que en la industria.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Le Dem & Frédéric Lerais, 1990. "Où va la productivité du travail ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 237(1), pages 49-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1990_num_237_1_5501
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1990.5501
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1990.5501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    2. Peter Hooper & Kathryn A. Larin, 1988. "International comparisons of labor costs in manufacturing," International Finance Discussion Papers 330, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 1991. "Productivity, Wages, and Prices Inside and Outside of Manufacturing in the U.S., Japan, and Europe," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 153-207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1983. "Real Wages and Unemployment in the OECD Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 255-304.
    5. R. Layard & S. Nickell, 1985. "The Causes of British Unemployment," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 111(1), pages 62-85, February.
    6. repec:sae:niesru:v:111:y::i:1:p:62-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1987. "Wage Gaps vs. Output Gaps: Is There a Common Story for All of Europe?," NBER Working Papers 2454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Currie, David & Holly, Sean, 1990. "Effort, productivity and market valuation: The case of UK manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 375-384, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brigitte Dormont, 1994. "Quelle est l'influence du coût du travail sur l'emploi ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 399-414.
    2. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa & Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE, 1998. "Pour une réforme du financement de la Sécurité sociale," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 67(1), pages 155-205.
    3. Brigitte Dormont, 1997. "L'influence du coût salarial sur la demande de travail," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 301(1), pages 95-109.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5281 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5281 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5281 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Boyer, Robert, 1998. "Le lien salaire-emploi dans la théorie de la régulation. Autant de relations que de configurations institutionnelles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9814, CEPREMAP.
    8. Lionel de Boisdeffre & Pierre Joly, 1991. "Inflation et chômage : le rôle de la flexibilité," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 246(1), pages 65-74.
    9. Robert Boyer, 1999. "Le lien salaire-emploi dans la théorie de la régulation. Autant de relations que de configurations institutionnelles," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(1), pages 101-161.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5281 is not listed on IDEAS

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