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Comptabilité générationnelle appliquée à la France : quelques facteurs d'instabilité des résultats

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  • Carole Bonnet

Abstract

[fre] L’application de la méthodologie de la comptabilité générationnelle à la France conclut à l’existence d’un déséquilibre intergénérationnel. Le maintien des politiques fiscales et sociales actuelles conduirait à un paiement net des générations futures plus important que celui des générations actuelles. Cet article met cependant en évidence la sensibilité de l’ampleur de ce déséquilibre aux nombreuses hypothèses retenues pour l’exercice. Le déséquilibre varie en effet de 1 à 4 selon le choix effectué quant à l’individualisation des divers prélèvements, au traitement des intérêts de la dette, à la ventilation des dépenses d’éducation, à la prise en compte des investissements des administrations publiques, à la mesure de la richesse de l’État ou encore aux évolutions des profils de taxes et transferts par âge. [eng] Using generational accounting for France : Some factors of result instability.. Use of generational accounting methodology for France indicates the existence of a generational imbalance. Continuation of current fiscal and social policies would lead to a net payment by future generations that was larger than that of current generations. However, this paper indicates how the size of this imbalance is sensitive to the various assumptions adopted. The imbalance varies by a factor of 1 to 4 depending on the individualisation of the various taxes and social security contributions, treatment of debt interest, apportionment of education spending, recognition of public-sector investment, measurement of government wealth, and changes in tax profiles and transfers by age.

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  • Carole Bonnet, 2002. "Comptabilité générationnelle appliquée à la France : quelques facteurs d'instabilité des résultats," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(3), pages 59-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2002_num_154_3_6386
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2002.6386
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2002.6386
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    1. Didier Blanchet & Jean-Alain Monfort, 2002. "Croissance, transferts et inégalités entre générations," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 154(3), pages 79-94.
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    1. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Bonnet, Carole & Navaux, Julien & Pelletan, Jacques & Toubon, Hector & Wolff, François-Charles, 2015. "The lifecycle deficit in France, 1979–2005," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 79-85.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61kh4poj is not listed on IDEAS
    3. André Masson, 2002. "Méthodes et usages des comptes générationnels : un regard décalé," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(3), pages 1-24.
    4. Xavier Chojnicki, 2006. "Vieillissement démographique et immigration : un modèle de comptabilité générationnelle appliqué à la France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 174(3), pages 39-57.
    5. Christian Hagist & Norbert Klusen & Andreas Plate & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 2005. "Social Health Insurance - the Major Driver of Unsustainable Fiscal Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1574, CESifo.
    6. Hippolyte d’Albis & Carole Bonnet & Julien Navaux & Jacques Pelletan & François-Charles Wolff, 2017. "Lifecycle deficit in France: an assessment for the period 1979-2011," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 491-492, pages 47-70.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61kh4poj is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hagist, Christian & Klusen, Norbert & Plate, Andreas & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "Social health insurance: The major driver of unsustainable fiscal policy?," FZG Discussion Papers 1, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    9. Hippolyte d'Albis & Carole Bonnet & Julien Navaux & Jacques Pelletan & François-­charles Wolff, 2017. "Le déficit de cycle de vie en France : une évaluation pour la période 1979-2001," Post-Print halshs-01599680, HAL.

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