IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpol/v2019y2019i4id1255p385-405.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Peníze a inflace: ztracená kointegrace
[Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration]

Author

Listed:
  • Aleš Michl

Abstract

Using a cointegration, we show that there is no long-term relationship between money in the economy M and real (and nominal) GDP and CPI (US data from 1959 to 2018). There is no empirical evidence to support the textbook claim that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Only when we shorten the time series to the period before the crisis (1959-2008), there is a cointegration between CPI and M2, but only at the 10% significance level and only according to one of two co-integration tests. The relationship that existed before the crisis either had to fall apart or change. There are three possible explanations: (1) The growth of M in low-inflation economies (CPI below 10% annually) is distributed more equally between CPI and real GDP than in the event of significant changes in M. (2) The falling velocity of money after the crisis of 2008/2009. (3) The last possibility is an increase in the adequacy problem of inflation - the CPI does not adequately reflect the economic definition of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleš Michl, 2019. "Peníze a inflace: ztracená kointegrace [Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 385-405.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2019:y:2019:i:4:id:1255:p:385-405
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1255
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1255.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1255.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.polek.1255?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomas Havranek & Mojmir Hampl, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech National Bank's Approach," Research and Policy Notes 2017/01, Czech National Bank.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2006. "The Boskin Commission Report: A Retrospective One Decade Later," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 12, pages 7-22, Spring.
    3. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    4. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    8. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    9. Allan H. Meltzer, 1965. "Monetary Theory and Monetary History," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 101(IV), pages 404-422, December.
    10. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    11. A. C. Pigou, 1917. "The Value of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 32(1), pages 38-65.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    2. Akhand Hossain, 2012. "Modelling of narrow money demand in Australia: an ARDL cointegration approach, 1970–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 767-790, June.
    3. Lothian, James R., 2009. "Milton Friedman's monetary economics and the quantity-theory tradition," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1086-1096, November.
    4. Salami Doyin & Kelikume Ikechukwu, 2013. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon? The Case of Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(2), pages 105-114.
    5. George S. Tavlas, 2015. "In Old Chicago: Simons, Friedman, and the Development of Monetary‐Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 99-121, February.
    6. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    7. Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku & Imo Godwin Ibe & Uche Boniface Ugwuanyi & N. J. Modebe & Emmanuel Kalu Agbaeze, 2018. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Industrial Sector Growth: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, April.
    8. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    9. Hjertstrand, Per & Swofford, James L. & Whitney, Gerald A., 2020. "Testing for Weak Separability and Utility Maximization with Incomplete Adjustment," Working Paper Series 1327, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 30 May 2023.
    10. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    11. Marc Anderes & Alexander Rathke & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "The role of ECB communication in guiding markets," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 351-383, March.
    12. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Tavlas, George S., 2022. "Financial risks, monetary policy in the QE era, and regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    14. John Thornton, 2008. "Money, Output And Inflation In African Economies1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 356-366, September.
    15. Antonio Mele & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2019. "Velocity in the Long Run: Money and Structural Transformation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 393-410, January.
    16. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: The institutional approach revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-197.
    17. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    18. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    19. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    20. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; quantity theory of money; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2019:y:2019:i:4:id:1255:p:385-405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.