IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0257234.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identification of high-risk COVID-19 patients using machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Mario A Quiroz-Juárez
  • Armando Torres-Gómez
  • Irma Hoyo-Ulloa
  • Roberto de J León-Montiel
  • Alfred B U’Ren

Abstract

The current COVID-19 public health crisis, caused by SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), has produced a devastating toll both in terms of human life loss and economic disruption. In this paper we present a machine-learning algorithm capable of identifying whether a given patient (actually infected or suspected to be infected) is more likely to survive than to die, or vice-versa. We train this algorithm with historical data, including medical history, demographic data, as well as COVID-19-related information. This is extracted from a database of confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infections in Mexico, constituting the official COVID-19 data compiled and made publicly available by the Mexican Federal Government. We demonstrate that the proposed method can detect high-risk patients with high accuracy, in each of four identified clinical stages, thus improving hospital capacity planning and timely treatment. Furthermore, we show that our method can be extended to provide optimal estimators for hypothesis-testing techniques commonly-used in biological and medical statistics. We believe that our work could be of use in the context of the current pandemic in assisting medical professionals with real-time assessments so as to determine health care priorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario A Quiroz-Juárez & Armando Torres-Gómez & Irma Hoyo-Ulloa & Roberto de J León-Montiel & Alfred B U’Ren, 2021. "Identification of high-risk COVID-19 patients using machine learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-21, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0257234
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0257234
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0257234&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0257234?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avila-Ponce de León, Ugo & Pérez, Ángel G.C. & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2020. "An SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico: Mathematical analysis and state-level forecast," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Mohamed Abd Elaziz & Khalid M Hosny & Ahmad Salah & Mohamed M Darwish & Songfeng Lu & Ahmed T Sahlol, 2020. "New machine learning method for image-based diagnosis of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Lalmuanawma, Samuel & Hussain, Jamal & Chhakchhuak, Lalrinfela, 2020. "Applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence for Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic: A review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tayarani N., Mohammad-H., 2021. "Applications of artificial intelligence in battling against covid-19: A literature review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Yingying Liao & Weiguo Zhao & Liying Wang, 2021. "Improved Manta Ray Foraging Optimization for Parameters Identification of Magnetorheological Dampers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-38, September.
    3. Ortiz-Barrios, Miguel & Arias-Fonseca, Sebastián & Ishizaka, Alessio & Barbati, Maria & Avendaño-Collante, Betty & Navarro-Jiménez, Eduardo, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and discrete-event simulation for capacity management of intensive care units during the Covid-19 pandemic: A case study," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Marcel Lucas Chee & Marcus Eng Hock Ong & Fahad Javaid Siddiqui & Zhongheng Zhang & Shir Lynn Lim & Andrew Fu Wah Ho & Nan Liu, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence Applications for COVID-19 in Intensive Care and Emergency Settings: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Srinka Basu & Sugata Sen, 2023. "COVID 19 Pandemic, Socio-Economic Behaviour and Infection Characteristics: An Inter-Country Predictive Study Using Deep Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 645-676, February.
    6. Aguilar-Canto, Fernando Javier & de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric, 2022. "Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Sini V. Pillai & Ranjith S. Kumar, 2021. "The role of data-driven artificial intelligence on COVID-19 disease management in public sphere: a review," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(4), pages 375-389, December.
    8. Faizeh Hatami & Shi Chen & Rajib Paul & Jean-Claude Thill, 2022. "Simulating and Forecasting the COVID-19 Spread in a U.S. Metropolitan Region with a Spatial SEIR Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-16, November.
    9. de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric & Huang, Kuan-lin, 2022. "Modeling COVID-19 dynamic using a two-strain model with vaccination," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Prem Kumar, R. & Santra, P.K. & Mahapatra, G.S., 2023. "Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 741-766.
    11. Wang, Lingxiao & Hare, Brian M. & Zhou, Kai & Stöcker, Horst & Scholten, Olaf, 2023. "Identifying lightning structures via machine learning," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Krzysztof Fiok & Waldemar Karwowski & Awad M. Aljuaid & Redha Taiar, 2021. "Predicting the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States Using Graph Theory-Based Neural Networks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-12, April.
    13. Manuel Sánchez-Montañés & Pablo Rodríguez-Belenguer & Antonio J. Serrano-López & Emilio Soria-Olivas & Yasser Alakhdar-Mohmara, 2020. "Machine Learning for Mortality Analysis in Patients with COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Ehab M. Almetwally, 2022. "The Odd Weibull Inverse Topp–Leone Distribution with Applications to COVID-19 Data," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 121-140, February.
    15. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Anil Babu Payedimarri & Diego Concina & Luigi Portinale & Massimo Canonico & Deborah Seys & Kris Vanhaecht & Massimiliano Panella, 2021. "Prediction Models for Public Health Containment Measures on COVID-19 Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-11, April.
    17. Schaum, A. & Bernal-Jaquez, R. & Alarcon Ramos, L., 2022. "Data-assimilation and state estimation for contact-based spreading processes using the ensemble kalman filter: Application to COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Xiaofeng Liu & Zubair Ahmad & Ahmed M Gemeay & Alanazi Talal Abdulrahman & E H Hafez & N Khalil, 2021. "Modeling the survival times of the COVID-19 patients with a new statistical model: A case study from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-31, July.
    19. Basnarkov, Lasko & Tomovski, Igor & Sandev, Trifce & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2022. "Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    20. Saqib Ali Nawaz & Jingbing Li & Uzair Aslam Bhatti & Sibghat Ullah Bazai & Asmat Zafar & Mughair Aslam Bhatti & Anum Mehmood & Qurat ul Ain & Muhammad Usman Shoukat, 2021. "A hybrid approach to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic trend," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-16, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0257234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.