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Assessing the contagiousness of mass shootings with nonparametric Hawkes processes

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  • Peter Boyd
  • James Molyneux

Abstract

Gun violence and mass shootings are high-profile epidemiological issues facing the United States with questions regarding their contagiousness gaining prevalence in news media. Through the use of nonparametric Hawkes processes, we examine the evidence for the existence of contagiousness within a catalog of mass shootings and highlight the broader benefits of using such nonparametric point process models in modeling the occurrence of such events.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Boyd & James Molyneux, 2021. "Assessing the contagiousness of mass shootings with nonparametric Hawkes processes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0248437
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248437
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jetter, Michael & Walker, Jay K., 2018. "The Effect of Media Coverage on Mass Shootings," IZA Discussion Papers 11900, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Mohler, G. O. & Short, M. B. & Brantingham, P. J. & Schoenberg, F. P. & Tita, G. E., 2011. "Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(493), pages 100-108.
    3. Felipe Gerhard & Moritz Deger & Wilson Truccolo, 2017. "On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-31, February.
    4. Meindl, J.N. & Ivy, J.W., 2017. "Mass shootings: The role of the media in promoting generalized imitation," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 107(3), pages 368-370.
    5. repec:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2016.303611_2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robert Alan Clements & Frederic Paik Schoenberg & Alejandro Veen, 2012. "Evaluation of space–time point process models using super‐thinning," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 606-616, November.
    7. Sebastian Meyer & Johannes Elias & Michael Höhle, 2012. "A Space–Time Conditional Intensity Model for Invasive Meningococcal Disease Occurrence," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 607-616, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Peng & Wen, Feier & Li, Yan & Chen, Dianhan, 2021. "Multi-agent modeling of crowd dynamics under mass shooting cases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P2).

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