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Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro

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  • Esteban Dodero-Rojas
  • Luiza G Ferreira
  • Vitor B P Leite
  • José N Onuchic
  • Vinícius G Contessoto

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases have become a significant health issue in many regions around the world. For tropical countries, diseases such as Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya, became epidemic in the last decades. Health surveillance reports during this period were crucial in providing scientific-based information to guide decision making and resources allocation to control outbreaks. In this work, we perform data analysis of the last Chikungunya epidemics in the city of Rio de Janeiro by applying a compartmental mathematical model. Sensitivity analyses were performed in order to describe the contribution of each parameter to the outbreak incidence. We estimate the “basic reproduction number” for those outbreaks and predict the potential epidemic outbreak of the Mayaro virus. We also simulated several scenarios with different public interventions to decrease the number of infected people. Such scenarios should provide insights about possible strategies to control future outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban Dodero-Rojas & Luiza G Ferreira & Vitor B P Leite & José N Onuchic & Vinícius G Contessoto, 2020. "Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0222900
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222900
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laith Yakob & Archie C A Clements, 2013. "A Mathematical Model of Chikungunya Dynamics and Control: The Major Epidemic on Réunion Island," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-6, March.
    2. Ebenezer Bonyah & Muhammad Altaf Khan & K O Okosun & Saeed Islam, 2017. "A theoretical model for Zika virus transmission," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-26, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vinícius G. Contessoto & Olga Dudchenko & Erez Lieberman Aiden & Peter G. Wolynes & José N. Onuchic & Michele Pierro, 2023. "Interphase chromosomes of the Aedes aegypti mosquito are liquid crystalline and can sense mechanical cues," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Walker, Melody & Robert, Michael A. & Childs, Lauren M., 2021. "The importance of density dependence in juvenile mosquito development and survival: A model-based investigation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    3. Luba Pascoe & Thomas Clemen & Karen Bradshaw & Devotha Nyambo, 2022. "Review of Importance of Weather and Environmental Variables in Agent-Based Arbovirus Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-24, November.

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