IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v158y2022ics0960077922002120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A periodic Chikungunya model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yan
  • Li, Yazhi
  • Liu, Lili
  • Liu, Xianning

Abstract

In this paper, a Chikungunya dynamical model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission is developed, which incorporates the effect of seasonal temperature changes on disease transmission through time-dependent parameters. Firstly, the threshold parameter R0m that determines the persistence and extinction of mosquito populations is given, and then the disease reproduction number R0 is defined. Secondly, it is proved that if R0m > 1 and R0 < 1, the disease disappears; if R0m > 1 and R0 > 1, then Chikungunya with mutants and non-mutants will persist simultaneously. Finally, a case study is carried out with the data in Kerala, India, where the virus mutation causes the outbreak of Chikungunya. Data on newly confirmed human cases in the state between 2007 and 2010 is fitted and the theoretical results obtained in the previous section are validated. In addition, the effects of seasonal temperature change, virus mutation and transovarial transmission on the prevalence of the disease are studied by numerical simulations from different aspects.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yan & Li, Yazhi & Liu, Lili & Liu, Xianning, 2022. "A periodic Chikungunya model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922002120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077922002120
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laith Yakob & Archie C A Clements, 2013. "A Mathematical Model of Chikungunya Dynamics and Control: The Major Epidemic on Réunion Island," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-6, March.
    2. Valdez, L.D. & Sibona, G.J. & Condat, C.A., 2018. "Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 96-105.
    3. Wang, Yan & Liu, Xianning, 2017. "Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a within-host chikungunya virus infection model with two delays," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 31-48.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wieland, Ralf & Kuhls, Katrin & Lentz, Hartmut H.K. & Conraths, Franz & Kampen, Helge & Werner, Doreen, 2021. "Combined climate and regional mosquito habitat model based on machine learning," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 452(C).
    2. A. M. Elaiw & N. H. AlShamrani & E. Dahy & A. A. Abdellatif & Aeshah A. Raezah, 2023. "Effect of Macrophages and Latent Reservoirs on the Dynamics of HTLV-I and HIV-1 Coinfection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Salah Alsahafi & Stephen Woodcock, 2021. "Mathematical Study for Chikungunya Virus with Nonlinear General Incidence Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-18, September.
    4. L., Diego F. Aranda & González-Parra, Gilberto & Benincasa, Tommaso, 2019. "Mathematical modeling and numerical simulations of Zika in Colombia considering mutation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Abraham J. Arenas & Gilberto González-Parra & Jhon J. Naranjo & Myladis Cogollo & Nicolás De La Espriella, 2021. "Mathematical Analysis and Numerical Solution of a Model of HIV with a Discrete Time Delay," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Ahmed M. Elaiw & Taofeek O. Alade & Saud M. Alsulami, 2018. "Global Stability of Within-Host Virus Dynamics Models with Multitarget Cells," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 6(7), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Sharma, Naveen & Singh, Ram & Singh, Jagdev & Castillo, Oscar, 2021. "Modeling assumptions, optimal control strategies and mitigation through vaccination to Zika virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Ahmed M. Elaiw & Aeshah A. Raezah & Matuka A. Alshaikh, 2023. "Global Dynamics of Viral Infection with Two Distinct Populations of Antibodies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    9. Wang, Yan & Liu, Xianning, 2017. "Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a within-host chikungunya virus infection model with two delays," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 31-48.
    10. De Cesare, Luigi & Sportelli, Mario, 2020. "Stability and direction of Hopf bifurcations of a cyclical growth model with two-time delays and one-delay dependent coefficients," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Tara Sadeghieh & Lisa A Waddell & Victoria Ng & Alexandra Hall & Jan Sargeant, 2020. "A scoping review of importation and predictive models related to vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors (1999–2016)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Esteban Dodero-Rojas & Luiza G Ferreira & Vitor B P Leite & José N Onuchic & Vinícius G Contessoto, 2020. "Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922002120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.