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A Mathematical Model of Chikungunya Dynamics and Control: The Major Epidemic on Réunion Island

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  • Laith Yakob
  • Archie C A Clements

Abstract

Chikungunya is a re-emerging arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes. Although principally endemic to Africa and Asia, recent outbreaks have occurred in Europe following introductions by returning travellers. A particularly large outbreak occurred on Réunion Island in 2006, the published data from which forms the basis of the current study. A simple, deterministic mathematical model of the transmission of the virus between humans and mosquitoes was constructed and parameterised with the up-to-date literature on infection biology. The model is fitted to the large Réunion epidemic, resulting in an estimate of 4.1 for the type reproduction number of chikungunya. Although simplistic, the model provided a close approximation of both the peak incidence of the outbreak and the final epidemic size. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated the strong influence that both the latent period of infection in humans and the pre-patent period have on these two epidemiological outcomes. We show why separating these variables, which are epidemiologically distinct in chikungunya infections, is not only necessary for accurate model fitting but also important in informing control.

Suggested Citation

  • Laith Yakob & Archie C A Clements, 2013. "A Mathematical Model of Chikungunya Dynamics and Control: The Major Epidemic on Réunion Island," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-6, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0057448
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057448
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yan & Liu, Xianning, 2017. "Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a within-host chikungunya virus infection model with two delays," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 31-48.
    2. Wang, Yan & Li, Yazhi & Liu, Lili & Liu, Xianning, 2022. "A periodic Chikungunya model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Sharma, Naveen & Singh, Ram & Singh, Jagdev & Castillo, Oscar, 2021. "Modeling assumptions, optimal control strategies and mitigation through vaccination to Zika virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Tara Sadeghieh & Lisa A Waddell & Victoria Ng & Alexandra Hall & Jan Sargeant, 2020. "A scoping review of importation and predictive models related to vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors (1999–2016)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Esteban Dodero-Rojas & Luiza G Ferreira & Vitor B P Leite & José N Onuchic & Vinícius G Contessoto, 2020. "Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. L., Diego F. Aranda & González-Parra, Gilberto & Benincasa, Tommaso, 2019. "Mathematical modeling and numerical simulations of Zika in Colombia considering mutation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-18.

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