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Social influence and political mobilization: Further evidence from a randomized experiment in the 2012 U.S. presidential election

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  • Jason J Jones
  • Robert M Bond
  • Eytan Bakshy
  • Dean Eckles
  • James H Fowler

Abstract

A large-scale experiment during the 2010 U.S. Congressional Election demonstrated a positive effect of an online get-out-the-vote message on real world voting behavior. Here, we report results from a replication of the experiment conducted during the U.S. Presidential Election in 2012. In spite of the fact that get-out-the-vote messages typically yield smaller effects during high-stakes elections due to saturation of mobilization efforts from many sources, a significant increase in voting was again observed. Voting also increased significantly among the close friends of those who received the message to go to the polls, and the total effect on the friends was likely larger than the direct effect, suggesting that understanding social influence effects is potentially even more important than understanding the direct effects of messaging. These results replicate earlier work and they add to growing evidence that online social networks can be instrumental for spreading offline behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason J Jones & Robert M Bond & Eytan Bakshy & Dean Eckles & James H Fowler, 2017. "Social influence and political mobilization: Further evidence from a randomized experiment in the 2012 U.S. presidential election," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-9, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0173851
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173851
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Robert M. Bond & Christopher J. Fariss & Jason J. Jones & Adam D. I. Kramer & Cameron Marlow & Jaime E. Settle & James H. Fowler, 2012. "A 61-million-person experiment in social influence and political mobilization," Nature, Nature, vol. 489(7415), pages 295-298, September.
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    3. Thomas Fujiwara & Karsten Müller & Carlo Schwarz, 2024. "The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from The United States," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1495-1539.
    4. Cariolle, Joël & Elkhateeb, Yasmine & Maurel, Mathilde, 2024. "Misinformation technology: Internet use and political misperceptions in Africa," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 400-433.
    5. Qing Xu & Joshua Yang & Michael R. Haupt & Mingxiang Cai & Matthew C. Nali & Tim K. Mackey, 2021. "Digital Surveillance to Identify California Alternative and Emerging Tobacco Industry Policy Influence and Mobilization on Facebook," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-12, October.
    6. Davide Viviano, 2019. "Policy Targeting under Network Interference," Papers 1906.10258, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    7. Shan Huang & Sinan Aral & Yu Jeffrey Hu & Erik Brynjolfsson, 2020. "Social Advertising Effectiveness Across Products: A Large-Scale Field Experiment," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(6), pages 1142-1165, November.
    8. Thomas Fujiwara & Karsten Müller & Carlo Schwarz, 2021. "The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 28849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tatiana Hajdúková, 2024. "Techniques for Manipulating Public Opinion in the Online Space During an Election Campaign as a Hybrid Threat," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 13, January.
    10. Ekaterina Zhuravskaya & Maria Petrova & Ruben Enikolopov, 2020. "Political Effects of the Internet and Social Media," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 415-438, August.
    11. Jiménez Durán, Rafael & Muller, Karsten & Schwarz, Carlo, 2024. "The Effect of Content Moderation on Online and Offline Hate: Evidence from Germany’s NetzDG," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 701, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
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    13. Davide Viviano & Jess Rudder, 2020. "Policy design in experiments with unknown interference," Papers 2011.08174, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    14. Claire E. Robertson & Nicolas Pröllochs & Kaoru Schwarzenegger & Philip Pärnamets & Jay J. Bavel & Stefan Feuerriegel, 2023. "Negativity drives online news consumption," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 812-822, May.
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