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Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias

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  • Adam J L Harris
  • Laura de Molière
  • Melinda Soh
  • Ulrike Hahn

Abstract

One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events—they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a ‘severity effect’ whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam J L Harris & Laura de Molière & Melinda Soh & Ulrike Hahn, 2017. "Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-35, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0173136
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John F. Y. Brookfield, 2001. "Predicting the future," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6841), pages 999-999, June.
    2. Klar, Yechiel & Medding, Aviva & Sarel, Dan, 1996. "Nonunique Invulnerability: Singular versus Distributional Probabilities and Unrealistic Optimism in Comparative Risk Judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 229-245, August.
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    5. Bilgin, Baler, 2012. "Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 203-215.
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    1. Cavalan, Quentin & de Gardelle, Vincent & Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe, 2023. "No evidence of biased updating in beliefs about absolute performance: A replication and generalization of Grossman and Owens (2012)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 530-548.

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