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A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change

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  • Nitschke, Craig R.
  • Innes, John L.

Abstract

Understanding how vulnerable forest ecosystems are to climate change is a key requirement if sustainable forest management is to be achieved. Modelling the response of species in their regeneration niche to phenological and biophysical processes that are directly influenced by climate is one method for achieving this understanding. A model was developed to investigate species resilience and vulnerability to climate change within its fundamental-regeneration niche. The utility of the developed model, tree and climate assessment (TACA), was tested within the interior Douglas-fir ecosystem in south-central British Columbia. TACA modelled the current potential tree species composition of the ecosystem with high accuracy and modelled significant responses amongst tree species to climate change. The response of individual species suggests that the studied ecosystem could transition to a new ecosystem over the next 100 years. TACA showed that it can be an effective tool for identifying species resilience and vulnerability to changes in climate within the most sensitive stage of development, the regeneration phase. The TACA model was able to identify the degree of change in phenological and biophysical variables that control tree establishment, growth and persistence. The response to changes in one or more of these variables resulted in changes in the climatic suitability of the ecosystem for species and enabled a measure of vulnerability to be quantified. TACA could be useful to forest managers as a decision support tool for adaptation actions and by researchers interested in modelling stand dynamics under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Nitschke, Craig R. & Innes, John L., 2008. "A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 263-277.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:210:y:2008:i:3:p:263-277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.07.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John F. Y. Brookfield, 2001. "Predicting the future," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6841), pages 999-999, June.
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    1. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.
    2. Mathys, A.S. & Coops, N.C. & Simard, S.W. & Waring, R.H. & Aitken, S.N., 2018. "Diverging distribution of seedlings and mature trees reflects recent climate change in British Columbia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 145-153.
    3. Monty, Arnaud & Lejeune, Philippe & Rondeux, Jacques, 2008. "Individual distance-independent girth increment model for Douglas-fir in southern Belgium," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 472-479.
    4. Fyllas, Nikolaos M. & Politi, Patrizia I. & Galanidis, Alexandros & Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G. & Arianoutsou, Margarita, 2010. "Simulating regeneration and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean coniferous forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(11), pages 1494-1504.
    5. Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo & Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi & Ulloa-Fierro, Felipe & Weintraub, Andrés & Barreiro, Susana, 2018. "A multicriteria optimization model for sustainable forest management under climate change uncertainty: An application in Portugal," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 79-98.
    6. Coops, Nicholas C. & Waring, Richard H., 2011. "Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(13), pages 2119-2129.
    7. Shaun Dombroskie & Monica McKendy & Courtney Ruelland & William Richards & Charles Bourque & Fan-Rui Meng, 2010. "Assessing impact of projected future climate on tree species growth and yield: development of an evaluation strategy," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 307-320, April.
    8. Choden, Kunzang & Nitschke, Craig R. & Stewart, Stephen B. & Keenan, Rodney J., 2021. "The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of key tree species and Cordyceps in Bhutan: Implications for ecological functions and rural livelihoods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).

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