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What Shapes Young Elite Athletes' Perception of Chances in an Environment of Great Uncertainty?

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  • Verena Jung
  • Sascha L. Schmidt
  • Benno Torgler

Abstract

Unrealistic optimism is a commonly observed bias in the perception of chances. In this paper, we examine whether the bias is also present among young elite soccer players (10 to 23 years old) who receive regular objective feedback through external assessments. Utilising a large unique data set of almost 1600 individuals allows us to explore the empirical validation of the ipsative theory of human behaviour. In particular, we analyse how factors such as age or experience, education, peer group performance, and the level of integration into culture exert influence over young elite athletes’ perceived chance of becoming a professional player. Working with a homogeneous dataset of individuals possessing similar characteristics and professional goals allows us to control for and isolate (unobserved) factors that may shape perceptions.

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  • Verena Jung & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2012. "What Shapes Young Elite Athletes' Perception of Chances in an Environment of Great Uncertainty?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-14, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    • Handle: RePEc:cra:wpaper:2012-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Verena Jung & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Antecedents of Attitudes Towards Risky Career Choices," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-20, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    2. Verena Jung & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, "undated". "Antecedents of Attitudes Towards Risky Career Choices," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 297, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perception of chances; unrealistic optimism; ipsative possibility set; integration effects; soccer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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