IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-31522-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas J. Kennett

    (University of California)

  • Marilyn Masson

    (The University of Albany-SUNY)

  • Carlos Peraza Lope

    (Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia – Centro INAH Yucatán)

  • Stanley Serafin

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Richard J. George

    (University of California)

  • Tom C. Spencer

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Julie A. Hoggarth

    (Baylor University)

  • Brendan J. Culleton

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Thomas K. Harper

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Keith M. Prufer

    (University of New Mexico
    University of New Mexico)

  • Susan Milbrath

    (University of Florida)

  • Bradley W. Russell

    (The University of Albany-SUNY)

  • Eunice Uc González

    (Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia – Centro INAH Yucatán)

  • Weston C. McCool

    (University of Utah)

  • Valorie V. Aquino

    (University of New Mexico)

  • Elizabeth H. Paris

    (University of Calgary)

  • Jason H. Curtis

    (University of Florida)

  • Norbert Marwan

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Mingua Zhang

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Yemane Asmerom

    (University of New Mexico)

  • Victor J. Polyak

    (University of New Mexico)

  • Stacy A. Carolin

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Daniel H. James

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Andrew J. Mason

    (Oxford University)

  • Gideon M. Henderson

    (Oxford University)

  • Mark Brenner

    (University of Florida)

  • James U. L. Baldini

    (University of Durham)

  • Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach

    (Northumbria University)

  • David A. Hodell

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas J. Kennett & Marilyn Masson & Carlos Peraza Lope & Stanley Serafin & Richard J. George & Tom C. Spencer & Julie A. Hoggarth & Brendan J. Culleton & Thomas K. Harper & Keith M. Prufer & Susan M, 2022. "Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31522-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31522-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas J. Kennett & Stephen Plog & Richard J. George & Brendan J. Culleton & Adam S. Watson & Pontus Skoglund & Nadin Rohland & Swapan Mallick & Kristin Stewardson & Logan Kistler & Steven A. LeBlanc, 2017. "Archaeogenomic evidence reveals prehistoric matrilineal dynasty," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
    2. Stephen Shennan & Sean S. Downey & Adrian Timpson & Kevan Edinborough & Sue Colledge & Tim Kerig & Katie Manning & Mark G. Thomas, 2013. "Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Takeshi Inomata & Daniela Triadan & Verónica A. Vázquez López & Juan Carlos Fernandez-Diaz & Takayuki Omori & María Belén Méndez Bauer & Melina García Hernández & Timothy Beach & Clarissa Cagnato & Ka, 2020. "Monumental architecture at Aguada Fénix and the rise of Maya civilization," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7813), pages 530-533, June.
    4. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.
    5. Mark Collard & W Christopher Carleton & David A Campbell, 2021. "Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Konstantin Ash & Nick Obradovich, 2020. "Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 3-31, January.
    7. A. Park Williams & Benjamin I. Cook & Jason E. Smerdon, 2022. "Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 232-234, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Westovera, Chanden & McCarty, Tanner, 2024. "Renaissance Ag: Identifying the Who, How, and Where of Marketing a New Technology," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 6(2), July.
    2. Kapoor, Ishaan & Pratt-Rogers, William & Kahraman, Muhammet Mustafa, 2022. "The problem of conflict minerals: A review of current approaches and a web 3.0 inspired road ahead," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jansesberger, Viktoria, 2024. "Storms, floods, landslides and elections in India's growing metropolises: Hotbeds for political protest?," Working Papers 28, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    2. Enrico R Crema & Shinya Shoda, 2021. "A Bayesian approach for fitting and comparing demographic growth models of radiocarbon dates: A case study on the Jomon-Yayoi transition in Kyushu (Japan)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, May.
    3. Saifullahi Sani Ibrahim & Huseyin Ozdeser & Behiye Cavusoglu, 2020. "Testing the impact of environmental hazards and violent conflicts on sustainable pastoral development: micro-level evidence from Nigeria," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4169-4190, June.
    4. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo.
    5. Hualiang Wei & Grant R. Bigg, 2017. "The Dominance of Food Supply in Changing Demographic Factors across Africa: A Model Using a Systems Identification Approach," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Wang, Yuhan & Lewis, David J., 2024. "Wildfires and climate change have lowered the economic value of western U.S. forests by altering risk expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Hans Visser & Arthur Petersen & Willem Ligtvoet, 2014. "On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 461-477, August.
    8. Ore Koren & Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2016. "From global to local, food insecurity is associated with contemporary armed conflicts," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(5), pages 999-1010, October.
    9. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    11. Price Gregory N. & Elu Juliet U., 2017. "Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, August.
    12. Sarah E. Null & Harrison Zeff & Jeffrey Mount & Brian Gray & Anna M. Sturrock & Gokce Sencan & Kristen Dybala & Barton Thompson, 2024. "Storing and managing water for the environment is more efficient than mimicking natural flows," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Yijian Liu & Chaoqun Zhou & Lin Li & Liang Su & Yuanbiao Zhang, 2018. "Fragile States Metric System: An Assessment Model Considering Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, May.
    14. Chi-Chun Liu & David Witonsky & Anna Gosling & Ju Hyeon Lee & Harald Ringbauer & Richard Hagan & Nisha Patel & Raphaela Stahl & John Novembre & Mark Aldenderfer & Christina Warinner & Anna Di Rienzo &, 2022. "Ancient genomes from the Himalayas illuminate the genetic history of Tibetans and their Tibeto-Burman speaking neighbors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Pfaff, Alexander & Vélez, Maria Alejandra & Ramos, Pablo Andres & Molina, Adriana, 2015. "Framed field experiment on resource scarcity & extraction: Path-dependent generosity within sequential water appropriation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 416-429.
    16. Margiana Petersen-Rockney, 2022. "Farmers adapt to climate change irrespective of stated belief in climate change: a California case study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Knipper, Kyle & Yang, Yun & Anderson, Martha & Bambach, Nicolas & Kustas, William & McElrone, Andrew & Gao, Feng & Alsina, Maria Mar, 2023. "Decreased latency in landsat-derived land surface temperature products: A case for near-real-time evapotranspiration estimation in California," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    18. Etienne Inedit Blaise Tsomb Tsomb & Mermoz Homer III Nsoga Nsoga & Cyrille Dominick Bitting, 2024. "Climate change vulnerability and conflicts in Africa: evidence from the migrations channel," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18811-18854, July.
    19. Gartzke Erik & Böhmelt Tobias, 2015. "Climate and Conflict: Whence the Weather?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 445-451, December.
    20. Dilshad Ahmad & Muhammad Afzal, 2022. "Impact of violent conflicts and environmental hazards on pastoral sustainable development in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 11260-11281, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31522-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.