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Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas J. Kennett

    (University of California)

  • Marilyn Masson

    (The University of Albany-SUNY)

  • Carlos Peraza Lope

    (Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia – Centro INAH Yucatán)

  • Stanley Serafin

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Richard J. George

    (University of California)

  • Tom C. Spencer

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Julie A. Hoggarth

    (Baylor University)

  • Brendan J. Culleton

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Thomas K. Harper

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Keith M. Prufer

    (University of New Mexico
    University of New Mexico)

  • Susan Milbrath

    (University of Florida)

  • Bradley W. Russell

    (The University of Albany-SUNY)

  • Eunice Uc González

    (Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia – Centro INAH Yucatán)

  • Weston C. McCool

    (University of Utah)

  • Valorie V. Aquino

    (University of New Mexico)

  • Elizabeth H. Paris

    (University of Calgary)

  • Jason H. Curtis

    (University of Florida)

  • Norbert Marwan

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Mingua Zhang

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Yemane Asmerom

    (University of New Mexico)

  • Victor J. Polyak

    (University of New Mexico)

  • Stacy A. Carolin

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Daniel H. James

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Andrew J. Mason

    (Oxford University)

  • Gideon M. Henderson

    (Oxford University)

  • Mark Brenner

    (University of Florida)

  • James U. L. Baldini

    (University of Durham)

  • Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach

    (Northumbria University)

  • David A. Hodell

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas J. Kennett & Marilyn Masson & Carlos Peraza Lope & Stanley Serafin & Richard J. George & Tom C. Spencer & Julie A. Hoggarth & Brendan J. Culleton & Thomas K. Harper & Keith M. Prufer & Susan M, 2022. "Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31522-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas J. Kennett & Stephen Plog & Richard J. George & Brendan J. Culleton & Adam S. Watson & Pontus Skoglund & Nadin Rohland & Swapan Mallick & Kristin Stewardson & Logan Kistler & Steven A. LeBlanc, 2017. "Archaeogenomic evidence reveals prehistoric matrilineal dynasty," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
    2. Stephen Shennan & Sean S. Downey & Adrian Timpson & Kevan Edinborough & Sue Colledge & Tim Kerig & Katie Manning & Mark G. Thomas, 2013. "Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Takeshi Inomata & Daniela Triadan & Verónica A. Vázquez López & Juan Carlos Fernandez-Diaz & Takayuki Omori & María Belén Méndez Bauer & Melina García Hernández & Timothy Beach & Clarissa Cagnato & Ka, 2020. "Monumental architecture at Aguada Fénix and the rise of Maya civilization," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7813), pages 530-533, June.
    4. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.
    5. Mark Collard & W Christopher Carleton & David A Campbell, 2021. "Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Konstantin Ash & Nick Obradovich, 2020. "Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 3-31, January.
    7. A. Park Williams & Benjamin I. Cook & Jason E. Smerdon, 2022. "Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 232-234, March.
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