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Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects

Author

Listed:
  • Rosa Ana Sánchez-Guillén
  • Jesús Muñoz
  • Gerardo Rodríguez-Tapia
  • T Patricia Feria Arroyo
  • Alex Córdoba-Aguilar

Abstract

Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosa Ana Sánchez-Guillén & Jesús Muñoz & Gerardo Rodríguez-Tapia & T Patricia Feria Arroyo & Alex Córdoba-Aguilar, 2013. "Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-1, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0080531
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080531
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    1. Camille Parmesan & Nils Ryrholm & Constantí Stefanescu & Jane K. Hill & Chris D. Thomas & Henri Descimon & Brian Huntley & Lauri Kaila & Jaakko Kullberg & Toomas Tammaru & W. John Tennent & Jeremy A. , 1999. "Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6736), pages 579-583, June.
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