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Population persistence in the face of climate change and competition: A battle on two fronts

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  • Rinnan, D. Scott

Abstract

Many species undergo significant shifts in population distribution in response to changes in climate. This response can introduce a species to new competition from invasive organisms, or influence the dynamics of an otherwise balanced ecosystem. How can a species ensure its own survival while dealing with both interspecific competition and the effects of climate change? We examine a two-species discrete-time, continuous-space population model to determine conditions for coexistence and criteria for persistence in a changing climate. Our analysis suggests that the cost of keeping pace with climate change can weaken the ability of a species to compete with others, and that climate change has the capacity to shift the stable-state solution of the population model. These effects are somewhat mitigated by niche differentiation, with the potential for habitat considered inhospitable to one species to provide refuge for the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Rinnan, D. Scott, 2018. "Population persistence in the face of climate change and competition: A battle on two fronts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 78-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:385:y:2018:i:c:p:78-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.004
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    1. Camille Parmesan & Nils Ryrholm & Constantí Stefanescu & Jane K. Hill & Chris D. Thomas & Henri Descimon & Brian Huntley & Lauri Kaila & Jaakko Kullberg & Toomas Tammaru & W. John Tennent & Jeremy A. , 1999. "Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6736), pages 579-583, June.
    2. Andrew J. Davis & Linda S. Jenkinson & John H. Lawton & Bryan Shorrocks & Simon Wood, 1998. "Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6669), pages 783-786, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bosi, Stefano & Desmarchelier, David, 2018. "An economic model of metapopulation dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 196-204.

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