IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v165y2021i3d10.1007_s10584-021-03077-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Has North Africa turned too warm for a Mediterranean forest pest because of climate change?

Author

Listed:
  • Asma Bourougaaoui

    (Eaux et Forêts-Laboratoire de gestion et de valorisation des ressources forestières
    Institut National Agronomique de Tunis
    INRAE, URZF)

  • Mohamed L. Ben Jamâa

    (Eaux et Forêts-Laboratoire de gestion et de valorisation des ressources forestières)

  • Christelle Robinet

    (INRAE, URZF)

Abstract

Climate warming is inducing dramatic changes in species distribution. While many studies report the poleward range expansion of some species, some others report the range retraction and extinction risk of other species. Here we explore how climate warming affects the southern edge in North Africa of the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, which is a model insect currently expanding northwards and toward higher elevation in Europe. This Mediterranean forest insect was found in southern Tunisia until 2003. Field surveys were conducted to map the current southern edge of the species in Tunisia. Pheromone traps were installed on a north-south gradient, a translocation experiment of egg masses was conducted on this gradient, and local temperature change was analyzed. We thus proved that the pine processionary moth has disappeared from southern Tunisia, and that no more adult males were actually flying there. We also found a decrease of egg hatching and of the proportion of individuals able to reach larval stages along this gradient, while daily minimal and maximal temperatures globally increased. Furthermore, we showed that daily maximal and minimal temperatures as well as indices of extremely high temperatures have substantially increased during the study period (1980–2019). This study reveals the retraction of the pine processionary moth from southern Tunisia due to higher mortality rates that could be attributed to a significant local warming. The role of other factors (mainly the response of host trees and natural enemies to climate change) may amplify this direct effect and should be further explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Asma Bourougaaoui & Mohamed L. Ben Jamâa & Christelle Robinet, 2021. "Has North Africa turned too warm for a Mediterranean forest pest because of climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03077-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03077-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03077-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03077-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Alan Pounds & Michael P. L. Fogden & John H. Campbell, 1999. "Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain," Nature, Nature, vol. 398(6728), pages 611-615, April.
    2. Chris D. Thomas & Jack J. Lennon, 1999. "Birds extend their ranges northwards," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6733), pages 213-213, May.
    3. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    4. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    5. Camille Parmesan & Nils Ryrholm & Constantí Stefanescu & Jane K. Hill & Chris D. Thomas & Henri Descimon & Brian Huntley & Lauri Kaila & Jaakko Kullberg & Toomas Tammaru & W. John Tennent & Jeremy A. , 1999. "Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6736), pages 579-583, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. German Forero-Medina & John Terborgh & S Jacob Socolar & Stuart L Pimm, 2011. "Elevational Ranges of Birds on a Tropical Montane Gradient Lag behind Warming Temperatures," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-5, December.
    2. Ernesto Azzurro & Paula Moschella & Francesc Maynou, 2011. "Tracking Signals of Change in Mediterranean Fish Diversity Based on Local Ecological Knowledge," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-8, September.
    3. Lucy R. Mason & Rhys E. Green & Christine Howard & Philip A. Stephens & Stephen G. Willis & Ainars Aunins & Lluís Brotons & Tomasz Chodkiewicz & Przemysław Chylarecki & Virginia Escandell & Ruud P. B., 2019. "Population responses of bird populations to climate change on two continents vary with species’ ecological traits but not with direction of change in climate suitability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 337-354, December.
    4. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    5. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    6. Rougier, Thibaud & Drouineau, Hilaire & Dumoulin, Nicolas & Faure, Thierry & Deffuant, Guillaume & Rochard, Eric & Lambert, Patrick, 2014. "The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 31-44.
    7. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    8. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    9. Jahan Zeb Khan & Muhammad Zaheer, 2018. "Impacts Of Environmental Changeability And Human Activities On Hydrological Processes And Response ," Environmental Contaminants Reviews (ECR), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 13-17, June.
    10. Thurner, Stephanie D & Converse, Sarah J & Branch, Trevor A, 2021. "Modeling opportunistic exploitation: increased extinction risk when targeting more than one species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 454(C).
    11. Liu, Zhu & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Liang, Sai & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Zhang, Chao & Guan, Dabo, 2015. "Four system boundaries for carbon accounts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 118-125.
    12. Hosterman, H. R., 2009. "Water, climate change, and adaptation: focus on the Ganges River Basin," IWMI Working Papers H042415, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Lei Zhang & Zhinong Jing & Zuyao Li & Yang Liu & Shengzuo Fang, 2019. "Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-16, August.
    14. Maggini, Ramona & Lehmann, Anthony & Kéry, Marc & Schmid, Hans & Beniston, Martin & Jenni, Lukas & Zbinden, Niklaus, 2011. "Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 21-32.
    15. Chuansheng Wang & Guiyan Sun & Lijuan Dang, 2015. "Identifying Ecological Red Lines: A Case Study of the Coast in Liaoning Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Daniel K Gibson-Reinemer & Frank J Rahel, 2015. "Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    17. Dubravka Milić & Snežana Radenković & Dimitrije Radišić & Andrijana Andrić & Tijana Nikolić & Ante Vujić, 2019. "Stability and changes in the distribution of Pipiza hoverflies (Diptera, Syrphidae) in Europe under projected future climate conditions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Denis Réale & Mahdi Khelfaoui & Pierre-Olivier Montiglio & Yves Gingras, 2020. "Mapping the dynamics of research networks in ecology and evolution using co-citation analysis (1975–2014)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(3), pages 1361-1385, March.
    19. Manica, Mattia & Rosà , Roberto & Pugliese, Andrea & Bolzoni, Luca, 2013. "Exclusion and spatial segregation in the apparent competition between two hosts sharing macroparasites," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 12-22.
    20. Reed Noss, 2011. "Between the devil and the deep blue sea: Florida’s unenviable position with respect to sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(1), pages 1-16, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03077-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.