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Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Tarek Soliman
  • Monique C M Mourits
  • Wopke van der Werf
  • Geerten M Hengeveld
  • Christelle Robinet
  • Alfons G J M Oude Lansink

Abstract

Background: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. Methodology/Principal Findings: Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. Conclusions/Significance: Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarek Soliman & Monique C M Mourits & Wopke van der Werf & Geerten M Hengeveld & Christelle Robinet & Alfons G J M Oude Lansink, 2012. "Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(9), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0045505
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0045505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Glyn Wittwer & Simon McKirdy & Ryan Wilson, 2005. "Regional economic impacts of a plant disease incursion using a general equilibrium approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(1), pages 75-89, March.
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    1. Giuseppe Timpanaro & Mariarita Cammarata & Arturo Urso, 2020. "Analysis of Trade Flows of Ornamental Citrus Fruits and Other Rutaceae in the Mediterranean Basin and Potential for Xantomonas citri Introduction," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Martin Ward, 2016. "Action against pest spread—the case for retrospective analysis with a focus on timing," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 77-81, February.
    3. Claudio Petucco & Antonello Lobianco & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Economic Evaluation of an Invasive Forest Pathogen at a Large Scale : The Case of Ash Dieback in France," Post-Print hal-02625280, HAL.
    4. Douma, J.C. & Pautasso, M. & Venette, R.C. & Robinet, C. & Hemerik, L. & Mourits, M.C.M. & Schans, J. & van der Werf, W., 2016. "Pathway models for analysing and managing the introduction of alien plant pests—an overview and categorization," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 58-67.
    5. İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın & Robert G. Haight, 2018. "A review of operations research models in invasive species management: state of the art, challenges, and future directions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 357-403, December.
    6. Martin Ward, 2016. "Action against pest spread—the case for retrospective analysis with a focus on timing," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 77-81, February.
    7. Claudio Petucco & Antonello Lobianco & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Economic Evaluation of an Invasive Forest Pathogen at a Large Scale : The Case of Ash Dieback in France," Post-Print hal-03639337, HAL.

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