IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v124y2014icp39-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating crop rotation strategies with a spatiotemporal lattice model to improve legislation for the management of the maize pest Diabrotica virgifera virgifera

Author

Listed:
  • Szalai, Márk
  • Kiss, József
  • Kövér, Szilvia
  • Toepfer, Stefan

Abstract

Crop rotation is an effective control method against the root-feeding larvae of the maize pest Diabrotica virgifera virgifera (western corn rootworm; Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). However, adults are mobile and can re-colonise previously rotated maize fields. A discrete, spatiotemporal, lattice-based and cellular automaton-like, interacting particles system model was developed to allow complex analyses for improving integrated pest management recommendations and legislations; and this through considering at one time legislation for pest control strategies such as crop rotation, characteristics of an agricultural region and the population dynamics of the pest. Sensitivity analyses identified only two of 20 varying input factors with high importance at influencing the model output, i.e. the percentage of maize fields reaching pest populations above an economic threshold. These were: the percentage of rotated maize among all maize fields and the generational growth rate of the pest in low populated fields. Increases in the percentage of rotated maize led to a decreasing logistic curve for the percentage of fields reaching pest populations above threshold. Only a small percentage of maize fields was above threshold when percentage of rotated maize exceeded 70% holding all other input factors at their most likely values. Legislation of mandatory rotation after 3 consecutive years of maize growing reduced the need for rotation of maize for D. v. virgifera management below 60%. In contrast, nearly all maize fields reached thresholds when less than 40% of maize fields were rotated. An increased growth rate resulted in more maize fields reaching populations above threshold. Astonishingly, the maize growing in an agricultural region had, in a range from 20% to 60%, little to no influence. In conclusion, legislations requiring 100% rotation for the control of this maize pest seem too strict. Metamodels are provided to easily estimate percentages of maize fields reaching pest populations above threshold, which can be used by regional or country-wide decision makers in agri-policy as well as for integrated pest management guidelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Szalai, Márk & Kiss, József & Kövér, Szilvia & Toepfer, Stefan, 2014. "Simulating crop rotation strategies with a spatiotemporal lattice model to improve legislation for the management of the maize pest Diabrotica virgifera virgifera," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 39-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:124:y:2014:i:c:p:39-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.10.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X13001339
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2013.10.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maxime Dupin & Philippe Reynaud & Vojtěch Jarošík & Richard Baker & Sarah Brunel & Dominic Eyre & Jan Pergl & David Makowski, 2011. "Effects of the Training Dataset Characteristics on the Performance of Nine Species Distribution Models: Application to Diabrotica virgifera virgifera," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(6), pages 1-11, June.
    2. Carrasco, L. Roman & Cook, David & Baker, Richard & MacLeod, Alan & Knight, Jon D. & Mumford, John D., 2012. "Towards the integration of spread and economic impacts of biological invasions in a landscape of learning and imitating agents," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 95-103.
    3. Wesseler, Justus & Fall, El Hadji, 2010. "Potential damage costs of Diabrotica virgifera virgifera infestation in Europe – the “no control” Scenario," MPRA Paper 33231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Carrasco, L.R. & Mumford, J.D. & MacLeod, A. & Knight, J.D. & Baker, R.H.A., 2010. "Comprehensive bioeconomic modelling of multiple harmful non-indigenous species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 1303-1312, April.
    5. Carrasco, L.R. & Mumford, J.D. & MacLeod, A. & Harwood, T. & Grabenweger, G. & Leach, A.W. & Knight, J.D. & Baker, R.H.A., 2010. "Unveiling human-assisted dispersal mechanisms in invasive alien insects: Integration of spatial stochastic simulation and phenology models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(17), pages 2068-2075.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feusthuber, Elisabeth & Mitter, Hermine & Schönhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2017. "Integrated modelling of efficient crop management strategies in response to economic damage potentials of the Western Corn Rootworm in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 93-106.
    2. Feusthuber, E. & Schönhart, M. & Schmid, E., 2015. "Spatial analysis of maize cropping systems to relieve crop pest pressure in Austria," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212661, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. repec:zbw:inwedp:742019 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bernadette Kropf & Hermine Mitter & Martin Schönhart & Erwin Schmid, 2019. "Wahrnehmungen und Erfahrungen von Landwirtinnen und Landwirten in SüdostÖsterreich zu betrieblichen und regionalen Maßnahmen zur Regulierung des Westlichen Maiswurzelbohrers," Working Papers 742019, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carrasco, L. Roman & Cook, David & Baker, Richard & MacLeod, Alan & Knight, Jon D. & Mumford, John D., 2012. "Towards the integration of spread and economic impacts of biological invasions in a landscape of learning and imitating agents," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 95-103.
    2. Feusthuber, Elisabeth & Mitter, Hermine & Schönhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2017. "Integrated modelling of efficient crop management strategies in response to economic damage potentials of the Western Corn Rootworm in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 93-106.
    3. Walker, Adam N. & Poos, Jan-Jaap & Groeneveld, Rolf A., 2015. "Invasive species control in a one-dimensional metapopulation network," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 176-184.
    4. Stanaway, M.A. & Reeves, R. & Mengersen, K.L., 2011. "Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3531-3540.
    5. Martin Drechsler & Julia Touza & Piran White & Glyn Jones, 2016. "Agricultural landscape structure and invasive species: the cost-effective level of crop field clustering," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 111-121, February.
    6. Feusthuber, E. & Schönhart, M. & Schmid, E., 2015. "Spatial analysis of maize cropping systems to relieve crop pest pressure in Austria," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212661, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın & Robert G. Haight, 2018. "A review of operations research models in invasive species management: state of the art, challenges, and future directions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 357-403, December.
    8. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2013. "When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 235-255.
    9. Courtois, Pierre & Figuieres, Charles & Mulier, Chloe & Weill, Joakim, 2018. "A Cost–Benefit Approach for Prioritizing Invasive Species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 607-620.
    10. John M. Humphreys & Robert B. Srygley & David H. Branson, 2022. "Geographic Variation in Migratory Grasshopper Recruitment under Projected Climate Change," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Rincon, Diego F. & Esch, Evan D. & Gutierrez-Illan, Javier & Tesche, Melissa & Crowder, David W., 2024. "Predicting insect population dynamics by linking phenology models and monitoring data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    12. Abdulwahab, Umarfarooq A. & Hammill, Edd & Hawkins, Charles P., 2022. "Choice of climate data affects the performance and interpretation of species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    13. Onal, Sevilay & Akhundov, Najmaddin & Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra & Smith, Jennifer & Houseman, Gregory R., 2020. "An integrated simulation-optimization framework to optimize search and treatment path for controlling a biological invader," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    14. David C Cook & Shuang Liu & Jacqueline Edwards & Oscar N Villalta & Jean-Philippe Aurambout & Darren J Kriticos & Andre Drenth & Paul J De Barro, 2012. "Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-9, August.
    15. Jennifer L Sieracki & Jonathan M Bossenbroek & W Lindsay Chadderton, 2014. "A Spatial Modeling Approach to Predicting the Secondary Spread of Invasive Species Due to Ballast Water Discharge," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, December.
    16. Ben-Haim, Yakov & Osteen, Craig D. & Moffitt, L. Joe, 2013. "Policy dilemma of innovation: An info-gap approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 130-138.
    17. Douma, J.C. & Pautasso, M. & Venette, R.C. & Robinet, C. & Hemerik, L. & Mourits, M.C.M. & Schans, J. & van der Werf, W., 2016. "Pathway models for analysing and managing the introduction of alien plant pests—an overview and categorization," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 58-67.
    18. Martin Ward, 2016. "Action against pest spread—the case for retrospective analysis with a focus on timing," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 77-81, February.
    19. Fitzgerald, Katherine & Heller, Nicole & Gordon, Deborah M., 2012. "Modeling the spread of the Argentine ant into natural areas: Habitat suitability and spread from neighboring sites," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 262-272.
    20. Martin Ward, 2016. "Action against pest spread—the case for retrospective analysis with a focus on timing," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 77-81, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:124:y:2014:i:c:p:39-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.