IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0029373.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Triviño
  • Wilfried Thuiller
  • Mar Cabeza
  • Thomas Hickler
  • Miguel B Araújo

Abstract

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Triviño & Wilfried Thuiller & Mar Cabeza & Thomas Hickler & Miguel B Araújo, 2011. "The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0029373
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0029373
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029373
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029373&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0029373?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joachim H. Spangenberg, 2007. "Integrated scenarios for assessing biodiversity risks," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 343-356.
    2. Wilfried Thuiller & Sébastien Lavergne & Cristina Roquet & Isabelle Boulangeat & Bruno Lafourcade & Miguel. B. Araujo, 2011. "Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7335), pages 531-534, February.
    3. Joachim H. Spangenberg, 2007. "Integrated scenarios for assessing biodiversity risks," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 1-1.
    4. Wilfried Thuiller & Miguel B. Araújo & Richard G. Pearson & Robert J. Whittaker & Lluís Brotons & Sandra Lavorel, 2004. "Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    5. Chris D. Thomas & Jack J. Lennon, 1999. "Birds extend their ranges northwards," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6733), pages 213-213, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pliscoff, Patricio & Luebert, Federico & Hilger, Hartmut H. & Guisan, Antoine, 2014. "Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 166-177.
    2. García-Valdés, Raúl & Gotelli, Nicholas J. & Zavala, Miguel A. & Purves, Drew W. & Araújo, Miguel B., 2015. "Effects of climate, species interactions, and dispersal on decadal colonization and extinction rates of Iberian tree species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 118-127.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.
    2. Harmáčková, Zuzana V. & Vačkář, David, 2015. "Modelling regulating ecosystem services trade-offs across landscape scenarios in Třeboňsko Wetlands Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 295(C), pages 207-215.
    3. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    4. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    5. Nina Tiel & Fabian Fopp & Philipp Brun & Johan Hoogen & Dirk Nikolaus Karger & Cecilia M. Casadei & Lisha Lyu & Devis Tuia & Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Thomas W. Crowther & Loïc Pellissier, 2024. "Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Marmion, Mathieu & Luoto, Miska & Heikkinen, Risto K. & Thuiller, Wilfried, 2009. "The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3512-3520.
    7. Liu, Zhu & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Liang, Sai & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Zhang, Chao & Guan, Dabo, 2015. "Four system boundaries for carbon accounts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 118-125.
    8. Rougier, Thibaud & Drouineau, Hilaire & Dumoulin, Nicolas & Faure, Thierry & Deffuant, Guillaume & Rochard, Eric & Lambert, Patrick, 2014. "The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 31-44.
    9. Ernesto Azzurro & Paula Moschella & Francesc Maynou, 2011. "Tracking Signals of Change in Mediterranean Fish Diversity Based on Local Ecological Knowledge," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-8, September.
    10. Rong Fan & Jialin Lei & Entao Wu & Cai Lu & Yifei Jia & Qing Zeng & Guangchun Lei, 2022. "Species Distribution Modeling of the Breeding Site Distribution and Conservation Gaps of Lesser White-Fronted Goose in Siberia under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, October.
    11. Duque-Lazo, J. & van Gils, H. & Groen, T.A. & Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M., 2016. "Transferability of species distribution models: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Southwest Spain and Southwest Australia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 62-70.
    12. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Alexandros Papanikolaou & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Panayotis Dimopoulos & Maria Panitsa, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Nepeta Representatives (Lamiaceae) in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, April.
    13. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    14. Aldo Rafael Martínez-Sifuentes & José Antonio Hernández-Herrera & Luis Manuel Valenzuela-Núñez & Edwin Amir Briceño-Contreras & Ulises Manzanilla-Quiñones & Argel Gastélum-Arellánez & Ramón Trucíos-Ca, 2022. "Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    15. Tews, Joerg & Ferguson, Michael A.D. & Fahrig, Lenore, 2007. "Potential net effects of climate change on High Arctic Peary caribou: Lessons from a spatially explicit simulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 85-98.
    16. Antoine Adde & Diana Stralberg & Travis Logan & Christine Lepage & Steven Cumming & Marcel Darveau, 2020. "Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2339-2358, October.
    17. Chiu, Mei-Shiu, 2013. "Tensions in implementing the “energy-conservation/carbon-reduction” policy in Taiwanese culture," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 415-425.
    18. Almério Câmara Gusmão & Jôine Cariele Evangelista-Vale & João Carlos Pires-Oliveira & Adrian A Barnett & Odair Diogo da Silva, 2021. "New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, September.
    19. Pliscoff, Patricio & Luebert, Federico & Hilger, Hartmut H. & Guisan, Antoine, 2014. "Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 166-177.
    20. Fernández-González, Raquel & Puime-Guillén, Félix & Panait, Mirela, 2022. "Multilevel governance, PV solar energy, and entrepreneurship: the generation of green hydrogen as a fuel of renewable origin," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0029373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.