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Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

Author

Listed:
  • Wilfried Thuiller

    (Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS
    Climate Change Research Group, Kirstenbosh Research Center, National Botanical Institute)

  • Miguel B. Araújo

    (Biodiversity Research Group, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University)

  • Richard G. Pearson

    (Biodiversity Research Group, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University)

  • Robert J. Whittaker

    (Biodiversity Research Group, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University)

  • Lluís Brotons

    (Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS)

  • Sandra Lavorel

    (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, CNRS, Université Joseph Fourier)

Abstract

Arising from: C. D. Thomas et al. Nature 427, 145–148 (2004); see also communication from Buckley & Roughgarden and communication from Harte et al.;Thomas et al. reply Thomas et al.1 model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species–area relationship to estimate that 15–37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilfried Thuiller & Miguel B. Araújo & Richard G. Pearson & Robert J. Whittaker & Lluís Brotons & Sandra Lavorel, 2004. "Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:430:y:2004:i:6995:d:10.1038_nature02716
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02716
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    2. Tews, Joerg & Ferguson, Michael A.D. & Fahrig, Lenore, 2007. "Potential net effects of climate change on High Arctic Peary caribou: Lessons from a spatially explicit simulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 85-98.
    3. repec:asg:wpaper:1015 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marmion, Mathieu & Luoto, Miska & Heikkinen, Risto K. & Thuiller, Wilfried, 2009. "The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3512-3520.
    5. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Alexandros Papanikolaou & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Panayotis Dimopoulos & Maria Panitsa, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Nepeta Representatives (Lamiaceae) in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    7. repec:asg:wpaper:1018 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Almério Câmara Gusmão & Jôine Cariele Evangelista-Vale & João Carlos Pires-Oliveira & Adrian A Barnett & Odair Diogo da Silva, 2021. "New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Maria Triviño & Wilfried Thuiller & Mar Cabeza & Thomas Hickler & Miguel B Araújo, 2011. "The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10, December.

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