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Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

Author

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  • Wilfried Thuiller

    (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

  • Sébastien Lavergne

    (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

  • Cristina Roquet

    (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

  • Isabelle Boulangeat

    (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

  • Bruno Lafourcade

    (Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

  • Miguel. B. Araujo

    (National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Calle Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006, Madrid, Spain
    Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Évora, Portugal)

Abstract

European movements Extinction episodes, such as the anthropogenic one widely thought to be under way right now, result in a pruned tree of life. The possibility that further non-random extinctions across the tree of life could arise as a consequence of climate change has been investigated quantitatively using a series of projections of the phylogenetic diversity of European plants, birds and mammals. The overall effect is a thinning of the tree, with little loss of diversity. However, there are differences in the responses of northern and southern European species. For instance, France and Spain are more exposed to losses of phylogenetic diversity than high-latitude and high-altitude regions, where phylogenetic diversity is projected to increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilfried Thuiller & Sébastien Lavergne & Cristina Roquet & Isabelle Boulangeat & Bruno Lafourcade & Miguel. B. Araujo, 2011. "Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7335), pages 531-534, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:470:y:2011:i:7335:d:10.1038_nature09705
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09705
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    Cited by:

    1. Farid Uriel Alfaro-Ramírez & Jorge Enrique Ramírez-Albores & J Jesús Vargas-Hernández & Sergio Franco-Maass & Marlín Pérez-Suárez, 2020. "Potential reduction of Hartweg´s Pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) geographic distribution," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Nina Tiel & Fabian Fopp & Philipp Brun & Johan Hoogen & Dirk Nikolaus Karger & Cecilia M. Casadei & Lisha Lyu & Devis Tuia & Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Thomas W. Crowther & Loïc Pellissier, 2024. "Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Pliscoff, Patricio & Luebert, Federico & Hilger, Hartmut H. & Guisan, Antoine, 2014. "Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 166-177.
    4. Alba Estrada & M Paula Delgado & Beatriz Arroyo & Juan Traba & Manuel B Morales, 2016. "Forecasting Large-Scale Habitat Suitability of European Bustards under Climate Change: The Role of Environmental and Geographic Variables," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Fernández-González, Raquel & Puime-Guillén, Félix & Panait, Mirela, 2022. "Multilevel governance, PV solar energy, and entrepreneurship: the generation of green hydrogen as a fuel of renewable origin," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Aldo Rafael Martínez-Sifuentes & José Antonio Hernández-Herrera & Luis Manuel Valenzuela-Núñez & Edwin Amir Briceño-Contreras & Ulises Manzanilla-Quiñones & Argel Gastélum-Arellánez & Ramón Trucíos-Ca, 2022. "Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Maria Triviño & Wilfried Thuiller & Mar Cabeza & Thomas Hickler & Miguel B Araújo, 2011. "The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Nicolas Casajus & Catherine Périé & Travis Logan & Marie-Claude Lambert & Sylvie de Blois & Dominique Berteaux, 2016. "An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.
    9. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Thomas Raus & Panayotis Dimopoulos, 2021. "Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Chiu, Mei-Shiu, 2013. "Tensions in implementing the “energy-conservation/carbon-reduction” policy in Taiwanese culture," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 415-425.
    11. Duque-Lazo, J. & van Gils, H. & Groen, T.A. & Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M., 2016. "Transferability of species distribution models: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Southwest Spain and Southwest Australia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 62-70.
    12. Yanqin Zhang & Enming Ye & Fan Liu & Ningjing Lai & Xianli You & Jianwen Dong & Jiaying Dong, 2023. "The Relationship between Landscape Construction and Bird Diversity: A Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-21, March.

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