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Dynamic programming in cricket: choosing a night watchman

Author

Listed:
  • S R Clarke

    (Swinburne University of Technology)

  • J M Norman

    (University of Sheffield)

Abstract

In cricket, when a batsman is dismissed towards the end of a day's play, he is often replaced by a lower-order batsman (a ‘night watchman’), in the hope that the remaining recognised batsmen can start their innings on the following day. A dynamic programming analysis suggests that the common practice of using a lower-order batsman is often sub-optimal. Towards the end of a day's play, when the conventional wisdom seems to be to use a night watchman, it may be best to send in the next recognised batsman in the batting order. Sending in a night watchman may be good judgement when there are several recognised batsman and several lower order batsmen still to play (say four of each). However, with smaller numbers (two of each, for example), then, with very few overs left to play, it may be better to send in a recognised batsman.

Suggested Citation

  • S R Clarke & J M Norman, 2003. "Dynamic programming in cricket: choosing a night watchman," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 838-845, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:54:y:2003:i:8:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601527
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S R Clarke & J M Norman, 1999. "To run or not?: Some dynamic programming models in cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(5), pages 536-545, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnston, Iain G., 2022. "Optimal strategies in the fighting fantasy gaming system: Influencing stochastic dynamics by gambling with limited resource," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(3), pages 1272-1281.
    2. P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
    3. M B Wright, 2009. "50 years of OR in sport," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 161-168, May.
    4. J M Norman & S R Clarke, 2007. "Dynamic programming in cricket: optimizing batting order for a sticky wicket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(12), pages 1678-1682, December.
    5. Oliver G. Stevenson & Brendon J. Brewer, 2021. "Finding your feet: A Gaussian process model for estimating the abilities of batsmen in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(2), pages 481-506, March.
    6. Wei Yin & Zhixiao Ye & Wasi Ul Hassan Shah, 2023. "Indices Development for Player’s Performance Evaluation through the Super-SBM Approach in Each Department for All Three Formats of Cricket," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Perea, Federico & Puerto, Justo, 2007. "Dynamic programming analysis of the TV game "Who wants to be a millionaire?"," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 805-811, December.

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