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Is there a world real interest rate?

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  • Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Mark D. Unferth

Abstract

This study uses panel data techniques to estimate a common component to the ex post real interest rates of nine countries with liberal capital markets over the past 15 years. We show that the residuals from such a regression have almost no serial correlation, and that each country's real interest rate is highly correlated with the estimated world real interest rate. The primary exception to these findings is the behavior of the U.S. real interest rate, which exhibits large and persistent deviations from the estimated world real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E. Gagnon & Mark D. Unferth, 1993. "Is there a world real interest rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 454, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:454
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David S. Litvack & Jimming T.M. Lin & Jennie I. Litvack & Robert B. Satloff, 1990. "World," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 59-59, March.
    2. Dutton, Marilyn Miller, 1993. "Real interest rate parity new measures and tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 62-77, February.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May.
    4. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June.
    6. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
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