IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfecr/v72y2024i4d10.1057_s41308-023-00215-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Christiane Kneer

    (Bank of England)

  • Alexander Raabe

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines how UK banks channel foreign capital to the individual sectors of the domestic economy and to overseas residents. Information about the source countries of foreign funds deposited with UK banks allows us to construct a novel Bartik instrument for capital flows. Our results suggest that foreign inflows boost bank lending to the domestic economy. This is driven by the positive effect of foreign inflows on bank lending to non-financial firms and to other domestic financial institutions. We find that banks do not channel capital inflows to households or the public sector. Much of the foreign capital is also channeled back abroad, reflecting the role of the UK as a global financial center.

Suggested Citation

  • Christiane Kneer & Alexander Raabe, 2024. "Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(4), pages 1279-1319, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:72:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1057_s41308-023-00215-w
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00215-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41308-023-00215-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41308-023-00215-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2018. "Home away from home? Foreign demand and London house prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 532-555.
    2. Cerutti, Eugenio & Dagher, Jihad & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni, 2017. "Housing finance and real-estate booms: A cross-country perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    4. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    5. Avdjiev, Stefan & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Goldberg, Linda S. & Schiaffi, Stefano, 2020. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Cetorelli, Nicola & Goldberg, Linda S., 2012. "Liquidity management of U.S. global banks: Internal capital markets in the great recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 299-311.
    7. David Card, 2005. "Is the New Immigration Really so Bad?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 300-323, November.
    8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    10. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    11. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2014. "The Financial Resource Curse," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 58-86, January.
    12. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    14. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2016. "When Do Capital Inflow Surges End in Tears?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 581-585, May.
    15. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    16. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
    17. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Horen, Neeltje van, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 698-750.
    18. Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Neeltje van Horen, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm-Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 698-750, November.
    19. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    20. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    21. Matthew S. Yiu & Sahminan Sahminan, 2017. "Global Liquidity, Capital Inflows and House Prices in ASEAN Economies," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 105-126.
    22. Patricia Cortes, 2008. "The Effect of Low-Skilled Immigration on U.S. Prices: Evidence from CPI Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 381-422, June.
    23. Hoggarth, Glen & Jung, Carsten & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2016. "Capital inflows — the good, the bad and the bubbly," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 40, Bank of England.
    24. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Pravakar Sahoo & Geethanjali Nataraj, 2015. "Capital flows and asset prices: Empirical evidence from emerging and developing economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 1-14.
    25. Joon-Ho Hahm & Hyun Song Shin & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Noncore Bank Liabilities and Financial Vulnerability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45, pages 3-36, August.
    26. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    27. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    28. Hwee Kwan Chow & Taojun Xie, 2016. "Are House Prices Driven by Capital Flows? Evidence from Singapore," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, February.
    29. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    30. Bremus, Franziska & Neugebauer, Katja, 2018. "Reduced cross-border lending and financing costs of SMEs," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 80, pages 35-58.
    31. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    32. Shekhar Aiyar, 2012. "From Financial Crisis to Great Recession: The Role of Globalized Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 225-230, May.
    33. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    34. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    35. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:1-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Ongena, Steven & Smith, David C., 2001. "The duration of bank relationships," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 449-475, September.
    37. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:66:p:285-342 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. repec:cii:cepiie:2015-q1-141-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Julián A. Caballero, 2016. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 281-316, March.
    41. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    42. Filipa Sá & Tomasz Wieladek, 2015. "Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 221-256, March.
    43. Claudia Buch & Cathérine Koch & Michael Koetter, 2018. "Crises and Rescues: Liquidity Transmission through Global Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 187-228, September.
    44. Deniz Igan & Zhibo Tan, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2649-2671, December.
    45. Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
    46. Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2020. "Cross-border capital flows and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    47. Aiyar, Shekhar, 2011. "How did the crisis in international funding markets affect bank lending? Balance sheet evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 424, Bank of England.
    48. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2016. "Do capital flows change domestic credit allocation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 98-121.
    49. Liu, Zijun & Quiet, Stephanie & Roth , Benedict, 2015. "Banking sector interconnectedness: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(2), pages 130-138.
    50. Carol C. Bertaut, 2009. "The financial crisis and U.S. cross-border financial flows," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 95(Nov), November.
    51. Filipa Sá & Pascal Towbin & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Financial Structure And Housing Booms," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 522-546, April.
    52. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2016. "Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 565-569, May.
    53. De Haas, Ralph & Ferreira, Daniel & Taci, Anita, 2010. "What determines the composition of banks' loan portfolios? Evidence from transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 388-398, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Raabe & Christiane Kneer, 2019. "Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK," IHEID Working Papers 10-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2020. "Cross-border capital flows and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Doerr, Sebastian & Schaz, Philipp, 2021. "Geographic diversification and bank lending during crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 768-788.
    4. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66.
    7. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Horváth, Bálint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2020. "Foreign banks and international transmission of monetary policy: Evidence from the syndicated loan market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Daniel Carvalho, 2021. "Revisiting the relationship between cross‐border capital flows and credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 179-218, August.
    9. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2022. "Surges and instability: The maturity shortening channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Ramon Moreno & José María Serena Garralda, 2018. "Firms' credit risk and the onshore transmission of the global financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 712, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Carlos Cantù & Catherine Casanova & Rodrigo Alfaro & Fernando Chertman & Gerald Cisneros & Toni dos Santos & Roberto Lobato & Calixto Lopez & Facundo Luna & David Moreno & Miguel Sarmiento & Rafael Ni, 2022. "How capital inflows translate into new bank lending: tracing the mechanism in Latin America," BIS Working Papers 1051, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Aiba, Daiju, 2023. "Bank dependency on foreign funding and global liquidity shocks: The importance of US monetary policy for a developing country," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Salih Fendo?lu & Eda Gül?en & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1131, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    16. Catão, Luís A.V. & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2021. "Capital account liberalization and the composition of bank liabilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2024. "Global Financial Cycle, Household Credit, and Macroprudential Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8096-8115, November.
    18. Alper, Koray & Altunok, Fatih & Çapacıoğlu, Tanju & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Cross-Border Bank Loans: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:72:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1057_s41308-023-00215-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.