IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/gpprii/v41y2016i4d10.1057_s41288-016-0003-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The S-curve and Reality

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Millo

    (Generali S.p.A.)

Abstract

We challenge the common wisdom that the income elasticity of insurance is higher, ceteris paribus, in developing countries (the so-called S-curve hypothesis). Focusing on non-life insurance, we show that the available evidence is contradictory and heavily dependent on methodology. Based on a recent approach to consistent inference on the income elasticity of insurance, we show counterexamples to the theory. Although not supporting it in general, we argue that it could still be relevant for explaining the behaviour of particular lines of business.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Millo, 2016. "The S-curve and Reality," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 41(4), pages 608-625, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:41:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1057_s41288-016-0003-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41288-016-0003-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41288-016-0003-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41288-016-0003-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    2. Croissant, Yves & Millo, Giovanni, 2008. "Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i02).
    3. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    4. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    5. Gagnon, Joseph E & Unferth, Mark D, 1995. "Is there a world real interest rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 845-855, December.
    6. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    8. Giovanni Millo, 2016. "The Income Elasticity of Nonlife Insurance: A Reassessment," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 335-362, June.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    10. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    11. J. François Outreville, 2013. "The Relationship Between Insurance and Economic Development: 85 Empirical Papers for a Review of the Literature," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 71-122, March.
    12. Papell, David H & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2004. "The Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. Real GDP: Evidence with Restricted and Unrestricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 423-427, June.
    13. Andreas Hornstein & Edward C. Prescott, 1991. "Insurance Contracts as Commodities: A Note," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(5), pages 917-928.
    14. Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
    15. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    16. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chakraborty, Kalyan, 2020. "Development of financial market activities and economic growth: A cross-country evidence," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 26-47.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Millo, 2016. "The Income Elasticity of Nonlife Insurance: A Reassessment," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 335-362, June.
    2. Millo, Giovanni, 2014. "Robust standard error estimators for panel models: a unifying approach," MPRA Paper 54954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010. "The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
    4. Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Global and country-specific factors in real effective exchange rates," MPRA Paper 64217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Commonality and Heterogeneity in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 70078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    7. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    8. Gautam, Tej K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2018. "The demand for natural gas in the Northeastern United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 890-898.
    9. Brière, Marie & Chapelle, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1729-1744.
    10. Irena Vodenska & Alexander P. Becker & Di Zhou & Dror Y. Kenett & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2016. "Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, May.
    11. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2014. "Dépendance individuelle forte et faible : une analyse en données de panel de la diffusion internationale de la technologie," Working Papers halshs-01015208, HAL.
    12. Billio, M. & Donadelli, M. & Paradiso, A. & Riedel, M., 2017. "Which market integration measure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 150-174.
    13. Simon Stevenson, 2016. "Macro-Economic and Financial Determinants of Comovement across Global Real Estate Security Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 38(4), pages 595-624.
    14. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Mondher Bellalah & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "The comovements in international stock markets: new evidence from Latin American emerging countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1323-1328.
    15. Peñasco, Cristina & del Río, Pablo & Romero-Jordán, Desiderio, 2017. "Gas and electricity demand in Spanish manufacturing industries: An analysis using homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-60.
    16. Angelovska, Julijana, 2017. "The Impact Of Financial Crises On The Short-Term Interaction Between Balkan Stock Markets," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 8(2), pages 53-66.
    17. Gautam, Tej K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2018. "Estimating sectoral demands for electricity using the pooled mean group method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 54-67.
    18. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    19. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2020. "The Magnitude of the Task Ahead: Macro Implications of Heterogeneous Technology," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 334-360, June.
    20. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:41:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1057_s41288-016-0003-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.