IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/buseco/v51y2016i4d10.1057_s11369-016-0016-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael A. Brown

    (Wells Fargo Securities)

  • Michael Pugliese

    (Wells Fargo Securities)

Abstract

Academic researchers and commentators have drawn attention to the potential link between heightened uncertainty experienced in a presidential election year and slower real economic activity. Our analysis looks at some of the key economic variables typically used by the NBER to date business cycles and compares the performance of these economic indicators between presidential election and non-election years since 1960. Our results suggest that the general argument that uncertainty during presidential election years results in slower economic activity does not hold water. In fact, based on our analysis, we find that several measures of economic activity are actually stronger during presidential election years.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A. Brown & Michael Pugliese, 2016. "Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 260-265, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:51:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1057_s11369-016-0016-y
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0016-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s11369-016-0016-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s11369-016-0016-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1015-1045, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    2. Benjamin Marx & Vincent Pons & Vincent Rollet, 2022. "Electoral Turnovers," NBER Working Papers 29766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sy, Oumar & Zaman, Ashraf Al, 2020. "Is the presidential premium spurious?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 94-104.
    4. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad & Tim Robinson, 2021. "Political Attitudes and Inflation Expectations: Evidence and Implications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 605-634, June.
    5. Ostad, Parastoo & Mella, Javier, 2023. "The value relevance of corporate tax expenses in the presence of partisanship: International evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Philipp Hauber & Stormy-Annika Mildner & Galina Kolev & Jürgen Matthes & Sonja Peterson & Reimund Schwarze & Christiane Lemke & Martin, Thunert & Laura von Daniels & Josef Braml & Johannes Varwick & D, 2021. "Die USA unter Joe Biden: Kehrtwende oder "America first light"?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(01), pages 03-37, January.
    7. Hillard G. Huntington, 2017. "The Historical Roots of U.S. Energy Price Shocks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    8. Chengxue Yao & Fan Jiang & Liang Guo, 2023. "Fixed investment or financial assets investment: Evidence from political uncertainty in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 427-450, March.
    9. Hoda Aboushanab & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Jannik Sielmann, 2020. "Ökonomenpanel: Hoffnungsträger Biden," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 40-43, December.
    10. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of Trump," Policy Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5-6), pages 580-591, November.
    11. Anderson, Warwick & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Wagner, Moritz, 2023. "Midterm elections and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    12. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
    13. Walter Distaso & Rustam Ibragimov & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "COVID-19: Tail Risk and Predictive Regressions," Papers 2009.02486, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    14. Samar Ashour & David A. Rakowski & Salil K. Sarkar, 2019. "U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 523-540, October.
    15. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "Household debt in the times of populism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 202-215.
    16. Oliver Bachmann & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Ruben Seiberlich, 2021. "Partisan bias in inflation expectations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 513-536, March.
    17. Thiem, Christopher, 2018. "Cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 744, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Ke, Da, 2024. "Left behind: Partisan identity, stock market participation, and wealth inequality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    19. Dybowski, T.P. & Adämmer, P., 2018. "The economic effects of U.S. presidential tax communication: Evidence from a correlated topic model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 511-525.
    20. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Kilman, Josefin, 2021. "A Study of the Romer and Romer Monetary Policy Shocks Using Revised Data," Working Papers 2021:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:51:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1057_s11369-016-0016-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.