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Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael A. Brown

    (Wells Fargo Securities)

  • Michael Pugliese

    (Wells Fargo Securities)

Abstract

Academic researchers and commentators have drawn attention to the potential link between heightened uncertainty experienced in a presidential election year and slower real economic activity. Our analysis looks at some of the key economic variables typically used by the NBER to date business cycles and compares the performance of these economic indicators between presidential election and non-election years since 1960. Our results suggest that the general argument that uncertainty during presidential election years results in slower economic activity does not hold water. In fact, based on our analysis, we find that several measures of economic activity are actually stronger during presidential election years.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A. Brown & Michael Pugliese, 2016. "Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 260-265, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:51:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1057_s11369-016-0016-y
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0016-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1015-1045, April.
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