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A Statistical Analysis of Wheat Price Fluctuations in England: 1685–1850

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  • Marcus J. Chambers
  • Roy E. Bailey

Abstract

For some commodities and time periods, the analysis of price fluctuations must necessarily rely on the existence of price data alone. A theory applicable in such circumstances is outlined for commodities that are storable, traded in open markets and subject to net supply shocks which are heterogeneously distributed across the months of the year. Market prices are predicted to vary autoregressively except at times when wheat stocks become negligible and observed market prices exceed threshold prices (which may themselves differ across months). The model is applied to a monthly time series of wheat prices for southern England from 1685 to 1850. The autoregressive parameter and the threshold prices are estimated, substantial empirical support being found for the models tested. Historical events from the late seventeenth century through to the continental wars in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries are used to illustrate the mechanisms underlying the theory.

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  • Marcus J. Chambers & Roy E. Bailey, 1999. "A Statistical Analysis of Wheat Price Fluctuations in England: 1685–1850," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 564-588, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:50:y:1999:i:3:p:564-588
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00899.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
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    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    4. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
    5. Michael Turner, 1982. "Agricultural Productivity in England in the Eighteenth Century: Evidence from Crop Yields," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 35(4), pages 489-510, November.
    6. Gregory Clark, 1991. "Yields per acre in English agriculture, 1250-1860: evidence from labour inputs," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 44(3), pages 445-460, August.
    7. Nielsen, Randall, 1997. "Storage and English Government Intervention in Early Modern Grain Markets," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 1-33, March.
    8. C. W. J. Granger & C. M. Elliott, 1967. "A Fresh Look at Wheat Prices and Markets in the Eighteenth Century," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 20(2), pages 257-265, August.
    9. Roy E. Bailey & Marcus J. Chambers, 1998. "The impact of real wage and mortality fluctuations on fertility and nuptiality in precensus England," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 413-434.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Stead, 2004. "Risk and risk management in English agriculture, c. 1750–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 334-361, May.

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