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The Monetary Value of Family Policy Measures in Germany over the Life Cycle: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model

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  • Holger Bonin
  • Karsten Reuss
  • Holger Stichnoth

Abstract

This article quantifies the monetary value of key family policy measures in Germany over the life cycle. The analysis is based on a dynamic microsimulation model that combines simulated life cycles for a base population from the 2009 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel with a comprehensive tax-benefit model. The results indicate that households in Germany receive family- and marriage-related transfers of considerable monetary value, yet there is also substantial variation behind the population average. Moreover, it is shown that some measures, such as income tax splitting, may make individuals in fact worse off, in financial terms, over the long course, as a result of negative labour supply incentives which are reinforced through detrimental effects on human capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Bonin & Karsten Reuss & Holger Stichnoth, 2016. "The Monetary Value of Family Policy Measures in Germany over the Life Cycle: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(4), pages 650-671.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:62:y:2016:i:4:p:650-671.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifw014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Holger Stichnoth & Raphael Abiry & Karsten Reuss, 2015. "Completed fertility effects of family policy measures: evidence from a life-cycle model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1726-1733.
    3. Holger Stichnoth, 2020. "Short-run fertility effects of parental leave benefits: evidence from a structural model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 143-168, July.
    4. Peter Levell & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Constructing Full Adult Life-cycles from Short Panels," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 5-40.
    5. Colombo, Giulia, 2008. "Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: A Comparison of Different Approaches," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2015. "Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(587), pages 1191-1226, September.
    7. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    8. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    10. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann, 2006. "Die fiskalische Bilanz eines Kindes im deutschen Steuer- und Sozialsystem," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 28-36, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Benjamin & Hügle, Dominik, 2020. "The private and fiscal returns to higher education: A simulation approach for a young German cohort," Discussion Papers 2020/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Bönke, Timm & Glaubitz, Rick & Göbler, Konstantin & Harnack, Astrid & Pape, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2020. "Die Entwicklung und Prognose von Lebenserwerbseinkommen in Deutschland," Discussion Papers 2020/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Ivica Urban & Martina Pezer, 2018. "Microsimulation of Child Benefits: A Review of Studies," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 134-169.
    4. Bonin, Holger & Camarero Garcia, Sebastian & Lay, Max & Liu, Vivien & Neisser, Carina & Ody, Margard & Riedel, Lukas & Stichnoth, Holger & Ungerer, Martin & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2018. "Machbarkeitsstudie und Ableitung von Forschungsfragen zu Bedeutung, Inanspruchnahme und Verteilungswirkungen von gesellschaftlich notwendigen Dienstleistungen. Endbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 184658.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic microsimulation; family policy; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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