IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwsop/diw_sp770.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Life-Cycle Incidence of Family Policy Measures in Germany: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Bonin
  • Karsten Reuss
  • Holger Stichnoth

Abstract

This paper quantifies the life-cycle incidence of key family policy measures in Germany. The analysis is based on a novel dynamic microsimulation model that combines simulated family life-cycles for a base population from the 2009 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) with a comprehensive tax-benefit model. The results indicate that households in Germany benefit considerably from family- and marriage-related transfers, yet also reveal substantial variation behindthe population average. Moreover, it is shown that some measures, such as income tax splitting, may make individuals in fact worse off, in financial terms, over the long course, as a result of negative labour supply incentives which are reinforced through detrimental effects on human capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Bonin & Karsten Reuss & Holger Stichnoth, 2015. "Life-Cycle Incidence of Family Policy Measures in Germany: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 770, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.510616.de/diw_sp0770.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holger Bonin & Reinhold Schnabel & Holger Stichnoth, 2014. "Zur Effizienz der ehe- und familienbezogenen Leistungen in Deutschland im Hinblick auf soziale Sicherungs- und Beschäftigungsziele," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(1), pages 29-48.
    2. Bonin, Holger & Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Reuß, Karsten & Stichnoth, Holger, 2013. "Mikrosimulation ausgewählter ehe- und familienbezogener Leistungen im Lebenszyklus: Gutachten für die Prognos AG. Forschungsbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 111441.
    3. Nelissen, Jan H. M., 1998. "Annual versus lifetime income redistribution by social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 223-249, May.
    4. Peter Levell & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Constructing Full Adult Life-cycles from Short Panels," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 5-40.
    5. Colombo, Giulia, 2008. "Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: A Comparison of Different Approaches," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2015. "Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(587), pages 1191-1226, September.
    7. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    8. Audra J. Bowlus & Jean-Marc Robin, 2012. "An International Comparison Of Lifetime Inequality: How Continental Europe Resembles North America," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1236-1262, December.
    9. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    10. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    11. Immervoll, Herwig & Lindstrom, Klaw & Mustonen, Esko & Viitamaki, Heikki, 2005. "Static data ‘ageing’ techniques: accounting for population changes in tax-benefit microsimulation models," EUROMOD Working Papers EM7/05, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    12. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann, 2006. "Die fiskalische Bilanz eines Kindes im deutschen Steuer- und Sozialsystem," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 28-36, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glaubitz, Rick & Harnack-Eber, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2022. "The gender gap in lifetime earnings: The role of parenthood," Discussion Papers 2022/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Rick Glaubitz & Astrid Harnack-Eber & Miriam Wetter, 2022. "The Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings: The Role of Parenthood," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2001, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holger Bonin & Karsten Reuss & Holger Stichnoth, 2016. "The Monetary Value of Family Policy Measures in Germany over the Life Cycle: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(4), pages 650-671.
    2. Jungho Kim, 2023. "Female education and its impact on fertility," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 228-228, May.
    3. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Daniel Kemptner & Jan Marcus, 2013. "Spillover effects of maternal education on child’s health and health behavior," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 29-52, March.
    5. GENEVOIS Anne-Sophie & LIEGEOIS Philippe & PI ALPERIN Maria Noel, 2019. "DyMH_LU: a simple tool for modelling and simulating the health status of the Luxembourgish elderly in the longer run," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    6. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Maeder, Miriam, 2013. "The effect of education on fertility: Evidence from a compulsory schooling reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-48.
    7. Zhang, Zheyuan & Zhao, Zhong, 2023. "Women's education and fertility in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Rick Glaubitz & Astrid Harnack-Eber & Miriam Wetter, 2022. "The Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings: The Role of Parenthood," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2001, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.
    10. Stichnoth, Holger, 2016. "Verteilungswirkungen ehe- und familienbezogener Leistungen und Maßnahmen: Kurzexpertise," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 144169.
    11. Holger Bonin & Reinhold Schnabel & Holger Stichnoth, 2014. "Zur Effizienz der ehe- und familienbezogenen Leistungen in Deutschland im Hinblick auf soziale Sicherungs- und Beschäftigungsziele," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(1), pages 29-48.
    12. Charlotte Bartels, 2012. "Redistribution and Insurance in the German Welfare State," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(2), pages 265-295.
    13. Courtioux, Pierre & Gregoir, Stéphane & Houeto, Dede, 2014. "Modelling the distribution of returns on higher education: A microsimulation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 328-340.
    14. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    15. Mathias Huebener, 2017. "Intergenerational Effects of Education on Risky Health Behaviours and Long-Term Health," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1709, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "Fertility and the oil curse," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 381-416, August.
    17. Cummins, Neil, 2022. "The Causal Effects of Education on Age at Marriage and Marital Fertility," CEPR Discussion Papers 17398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Peter Levell & Barra Roantree & Jonathan Shaw, 2021. "Mobility and the lifetime distributional impact of tax and transfer reforms," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 751-793, August.
    19. Daniel Kemptner & Jan Marcus, 2011. "Spillover Effects of Maternal Education on Child's Health and Schooling," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 375, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    20. Glaubitz, Rick & Harnack-Eber, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2022. "The gender gap in lifetime earnings: The role of parenthood," Discussion Papers 2022/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic microsimulation; family policy; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sodiwde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.