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Do forecasters of major exchange rates herd?

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  • Frenkel, Michael
  • Mauch, Matthias
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph

Abstract

This paper uses forecast data from 1995 through 2014 to examine, whether the market consensus of exchange rate forecasts has an effect on the forecasts of individual experts. Such an effect could take the form of herding or anti-herding. We use a very comprehensive data set to study experts' forecasts of three of the most important exchange rates. The results indicate that anti-herding vis-à-vis the consensus of forecasts occurs more often than herding. We also show how the increase in the forecasting horizon and financial crises affect the intensity of anti-herding behavior. Moreover, we report that the (anti-)herding behavior does not affect the forcasting performnce.

Suggested Citation

  • Frenkel, Michael & Mauch, Matthias & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2020. "Do forecasters of major exchange rates herd?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 214-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:84:y:2020:i:c:p:214-221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
    3. Fenny Marietza & Ridwan Nurazi & Fitri Santi & Saiful, 2021. "Bibliometric Analysis Of Herding Behavior In Times Of Crisis," Papers 2106.13598, arXiv.org.
    4. Muto, Makoto & Saiki, Yoshitaka, 2024. "Synchronization analysis between exchange rates on the basis of purchasing power parity using the Hilbert transform," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.
    6. Pignataro, Giuseppe & Raggi, Davide & Pancotto, Francesca, 2024. "On the role of fundamentals, private signals, and beauty contests to predict exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 687-705.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Currency Issues; Foreign exchange market; Forecasts; Herding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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